The Long-Term In fl uence

Reporter Xie Xie

of Disruptive Innovation Upon Shipping Industry In the future, how will disruptive innovation affect the shipping industry?

Firstly, it would be the renewable energy. The use of renewable energy will cause the third industrial revolution. But compared with the last two revolutions,this renewable energy, with solar and wind energy as the sign, breaks the monopoly pattern of concentrated mining of fossil energy and concentration production,the universality of renewable energy makes large scale energy transportation unnecessary, 38% of global energy transportation demand (including crude oil and coal)will suffer a crushing blow.

Secondly, it would be the 3D print. With the development of 3D print, the production of many products will no longer need that much links, nor the global organization of productions, this will greatly weaken the demand for container shipping. At the same time, with 3D print arousing the personalized demand of people, the logistics activities of this product will need quicker way to transport, air transportation willreplace previous container shipping. 3D print makes the traditional big machine production decline gradually,and part of equipment manufacturing industries will decline, which will directly affect the demand of steel,the demand of iron ore and coal, and then will have a big impact on bulk shipping. Thirdly, it would be the mobile internet. Mobile internet is the product of mobile terminal and internet, it inherits the mobile terminal’s advantage of sharing, opening, interaction with internet anytime and anywhere. In addition, mobile internet and internet of things have created a new way of life—car sharing. Meanwhile, the pro fi t model of automobile producers will have a big change, they will no longer need to produce so many automobiles to supply the market, and thus it will reduce the demand of steel, iron ore and coal.

The new trend of shipping is small ship. From the angle of the general demand of global shipping, it is expected that it will reach 13 billion tons by 2025, and it is likely to be reduced to 12 billion tons by 2030.From the angle of shipping capacity, the idle capacity of every kind of ship surpasses more than 25%. From the angle of total amount, even if it reached 13 billion tons, the market demand will be met, let alone the large orders of shipyard, we do not know when the reversal of supply and demand of ship market will happen. From the angle of the future ship types, the miniaturization and localization of production promote diversification of the demand of transportation, and with the increasing improvement of transportation efficiency, small ships with high speed would be the new trend in the future.

Secondly, the inland waterway transportation will be replaced by the fl exible and fast mode of transportation.From the angle of inland waterway transportation, the increase of current land value and environmental value present a comparative advantage to other modes of transportation.

Thirdly, the large hub port will lost their prosperity.From the angle of coastal ports, the use of renewable energy has a negative impact on the demand of container shipping and bulk shipping, the localization production caused by 3D print will greatly cut down the distance of shipping, also, land transport and air transport will replace part of coastal transport, making fast developing of costal ports impossible. The diversification and timeliness of logistics demand also require that ships have good flexibility, the development logic of fast developing large hub port is still scale economy, and this transportation mode is not suitable for the future.Therefore, the decentralization of coastal ports is the long-term development trend. The construction of large coastal crude oil terminal and iron ore terminal needs careful consideration.

Lastly, water tourism will be a new growth point. From the angle of water leisure tourism, in the past two years,the visitors of China coastal cruise home port achieved an average annual growth rate of more than 80%, the numbers of Chinese outbound passengers have more than 100 million. It estimates that the numbers of Chinese who have per capita disposable income more than $16,000, and spend modern mass cruise price more than 2 times in 2020 is about 50 million. Therefore,cruise yacht is the growth point for the future, people who have fast-paced work need the “slow life” of cruise yacht to fi nd the rhythm of life.