China-U.S.Relations in a Trump Administration

Since “anti-globalization” was a signature campaign issue of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump， the incoming administration’s foreign policy moves are understandably attracting global attention. It seems that the direction of China-U.S. relations， one of the most important bilateral relationships in today’s world， will face a lot of uncertainties during the Trump administration.

Some analysts believe that Trump’s presidency will actually be a good thing for China since he will likely focus more on domestic reforms as he promised in his populist campaign. The new administration would also be less aggressive with the Asia-Pacific Rebalance strategy initiated by the Obama administration. Should that be the case， it would help reduce tension between the East and the West.

Others， however， worry that since Trump has been explicitly accusing China of stealing American jobs， trade frictions between the two countries will likely intensify after he takes office in the White House.

Given the fact that economic exchanges have remained one of the most important driving forces in China-U.S. relations， increased trade frictions will definitely strain overall bilateral ties between the two major economies of the world today.

What has happened over the past decades shows that China-U.S. relationship has a high degree of flexibility with its own particular pattern. Following the end of the Cold War， relations between the two countries have experienced complexity and fluctuations.

Former U.S. President George H.W. Bush， despite advocating a friendly policy towards China， led comprehensive Western sanctions against Beijing in the 1990s in hopes of achieving a domino effect following the collapse of the Soviet Union and tremendous changes in Eastern Europe. The Clinton administration （1993-2001） was capricious on the issue of China receiving most-favored-nation （MFN） trading status， and it criticized China on issues of human rights， Taiwan and Tibet. The Taiwan Strait Crisis of 1996 and the NATO bombing of Chinese Embassy in Yugoslavia in 1999 soured China-U.S. relations to an all-time low since the two countries established diplomatic ties in the late 1970s. During the George W. Bush administration （2001-2009）， Washington’s “preemptive strikes” strategy caused serious concerns on the part of the international community including China. By calling China a “strategic competitor，” vowing whatever means necessary to help Taiwan defend itself， and even publicly endorsing Taiwan’s separation from China， President Bush’s contribution to improve China-U.S. relations was largely negative. As for the Obama administration， its Asia-Pacific Rebalance strategy， coupled with unconstructive moves on the disputes over the Diaoyu Islands between China and Japan， the issue of South China Sea， as well as its Trans-Pacific Partnership （TPP） initiative， continued to hurt bilateral relations.

However， despite the turbulence and setbacks， China-U.S. relationship over the past decades has never been completely derailed. There are those who feel uneasy about China’s rise and growing strength， but prevailed was the perception that maintaining bilateral relations conforms to the fundamental interests of both the United States and China. That is a common understanding shared by the majority of people across the Pacific Ocean. And Beijing’s U.S. policy has all along played a crucial role to keep on track such a relationship.

China has emerged as the world’s second largest economy through peaceful development. The 2013 summit between Chinese President Xi Jinping and his U.S. counterpart Barack Obama reassured principles concerning bilateral relations. These principles stress the need to avoid confrontation， promote mutual respect and cooperation， seek common prosperity and build a new type of relationship between the world’s two largest economies. President Xi has， on a number of occasions， stressed the importance of tapping the huge potential in China-U.S. economic and trade cooperation. China’s 300 million middle-income earners are expected to double in the next ten years. That is obviously a contributing factor behind the American drive to come into a Bilateral Investment Treaty （BIT） with China.

Analysts believe that despite harsh campaign rhetoric， it is unlikely that the Trump administration’s China policy will deviate too much from America’s set pattern strategy. At the same time， however， the long-term mentality and practice of suspicion and containment on China would still cause trouble in bilateral relations including trade frictions between the two countries in the years ahead under Trump’s presidency. And a Republican-dominated Congress would only make it easier to resort to more protectionist policies than during the Obama administration. China should better be prepared.

On the other hand， any U.S. president is backed by professional administrative teams and massive think-tank systems. These are sophisticated state apparatus that work to make sure any administration’s China policy is adopted in the national interests of the United States. They will， of course， try to strike a balance between containing and connecting with China.