U.S.-Cuba Reset

By+An+Gang

U.S.-Cuba relations will take another significant step toward reconciliation this spring when U.S. President Barack Obama visits Havana. He will be the first sitting U.S. president to visit the island nation since Calvin Coolidge did so in 1928.

The two sides restored diplomatic ties just last summer after 54 years without formal communication. President Obama announced the March 21-22 visit， tweeting on February 17，“Ill travel to Cuba to advance our progress and efforts that can improve the lives of the Cuban people.”

The United States and Cuba severed relations in the 1960s during the Cold War following two high-profile international incidents. The first was a military invasion called the Bay of Pigs in 1961， when a group of Cubans funded and trained by the American Central Intelligence Agency tried to overthrow Cuban Prime Minister Fidel Castros government， but were embarrassingly unsuccessful. The second and betterknown incident is the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962， in which nuclear war was barely avoided.

Trade restrictions between the two countries had begun in 1959 after Castros communist party came to power and took over private businesses. Strict trade embargoes were put into place following the Cuban Missile Crisis， when all U.S. trade with Cuba was banned， with the exception of non-subsidized food and medicine. Americans were also no longer allowed to travel to the nation， and all two-way commercial flights were stopped.

Still， over the last 50 years， hundreds of thousands of Cubans fled to the United States seeking asylum. In 1994， President Bill Clintons administration enacted the “Wet-Foot， DryFoot” policy to deal with the increasing number of Cubans seeking refuge. If a Cuban was caught in the water between the countries—with “wet feet”—they would be repatriated home or sent to a third country. But if they were on American soil—with “dry feet”—they would be allowed to stay in the United States.

Ending the impasse

Despite the decades-long U.S. embargo and the mass exodus， the communist government never fell， thanks in large part to the help and support of the Soviet Union （until its collapse） and other countries in Asia， Africa and Latin America. The decades-long embargo and sanctions had largely invoked criticism from both left and central political parties particularly in Latin America， which also impacted relations between the region and the United States.

President Obama emphasizes the use of “smart power” and “soft diplomacy” when promoting American interests abroad. At the beginning of his tenure， he admitted Americas long-term embargo policy on Cuba had failed， and promised to restore relations with Cuba. Moreover， Cuban-Americans—who had voted for Obama in 2008 and again in 2012 in higher margins than recent Democratic presidential candidates—had long been unable to visit families in their native country because of the travel restrictions.

After more than a year of secret negotiations， U.S. President Obama and Fidel Castros brother and Cubas current President， Raul Castro， announced on December 17， 2014， that diplomatic relations between the United States and the Republic of Cuba would be restored.

During the Panama Summit of the Americas in April 2015， Obama and Raul Castro met in person. The Americans removed Cuba from its list of State Sponsors of Terrorism a month later. In July that same year， the two countries reestablished formal diplomatic relations and the U.S. embassy reopened in Havana.

Obama and Raul Castro met again on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in September 2015. Then on February 13 this year， Cuba returned an inert training Hellfire missile to the United States， which was inadvertently shipped there from Europe in June of 2014. Four days later， they inked an agreement restoring commercial flights between the two nations.

The U.S.-Cuba economic relationship is also thawing. According to U.S. Department of Commerce statistics， the United States approved 490 trade projects in 2015 with Cuba worth $4.3 billion， and bilateral trade increased 30 percent over 2014. Earlier this year， the Obama administration gave its approval for the first American company to operate in Cuba.

Shift still in progress

Obamas visit to Cuba will be the grand finale of his policy shift toward Cuba. In his meeting with Raul Castro， they are expected to exchange ideas on trade and immigration issues. Obama is also expected to press the Cuban Government for additional political reforms to liberalize its government and seek economic privatization， along with broadening access to the Internet.He will also meet with political dissidents during his visit.

While relations are improving， it should be noted that the two countries still have stark differences regarding human rights and ideology that will not be easily erased by the normalization of relations.

Obamas foreign policies have also highlighted a rift among Cuban-Americans. Close to 70 percent of young Cuban Americans surveyed in a 2014 Florida International University poll favored reopening diplomatic relations， while a similar survey showed that those who left Cuba much earlier supported the embargo.

Yet Obama is eager to distinguish his final legacy as his term comes to an end. His foreign policy has largely focused on five projects： the “pivot to Asia” strategy and the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement； the signing of the Iran nuclear deal framework and the beginning of the reconciliation process with two old enemies—Iran and Cuba； ending the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan； containing Islamic terrorism； and combatting global warming.

Reconciliation with Cuba is also a necessary step if Obama wants to reestablish Americas influence in Latin America. During his presidency， Obama officially renounced the Monroe Doctrine and initiated further relations with Latin America through projects like poverty alleviation， economic development， environmental protection and drug-control， with positive results. In many ways， the thawing of the U.S.-Cuba relationship is occurring in conjunction with the warming of U.S. relations with other Latin American countries.

The question is then whether Obamas new policies toward Cuba will remain in effect after a new president takes office in January 2017. Currently， two Cuban American U.S. Senators are competing for the Republican presidential nomination， and Floridian Marco Rubio and Texan Ted Cruz both disagree with Obamas new policy toward Cuba.

Earlier this year， Raul Castro said the United States needs to completely end the economic embargo against Cuba， return Guantanamo Bay， respect its political system and stop interfering in Cuban internal affairs. He reiterated that， “Cuba will never accept any conditions that undermine Cubas sovereignty.”

For the United States， it is not easy to persuade conservatives in Congress to lift trade and financial sanctions against Cuba or allow investments in the communist country. During the second U.S.-Cuba strategic dia- logue in Washington in January， Cuban Minister of Foreign Trade and Investment Rodrigo Malmierca Díaz repeated that American blockades in Cuba are the main obstacle to the two countries trade normalization.

China has been paying close attention to both U.S.-Cuba and U.S.-Latin America relations， not only out of concern for the development of Cuba， a fellow communist country， but also because of the possible influence on China resulting from changes in political strategies and economic policies. China is now Cubas second largest trading partner， with bilateral trade volume reaching$1.8 billion in 2014.

China welcomes the improved relationship between the United States and Cuba and values the expanded opportunities in tourism， infrastructure and agriculture brought about by the thaw.

In the long run， both China and the United States attach great importance to their relations with Latin American countries， and Obamas engagement with Cuba may further increase economic and coordination opportunities.