The Economy Matters More

By+Yu+Lintao

U.S. President Barack Obama announced a new U.S.-ASEAN Connect initiative at the two-day U.S.-ASEAN leaders meeting held at the Sunnylands Center in Rancho Mirage， California， on February 16. The initiative will create a network of hubs to better coordinate U.S. economic engagement in the region and better connect entrepreneurs， investors， and businesses and generated positive responses from ASEAN members.

The meeting was symbolically significant in two ways. The first was that the location， Sunnylands， was also the same locale where Obama first hosted Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2013. The second and most obvious is that the timing of the meeting， which by definition excludes China， also comes against a backdrop of growing Chinese influence in the Asia-Pacific region.

Yet if the Obama administration had hoped that ASEAN nations would mention China and their territorial contests in the South China Sea in its joint statement at the end of the meeting， its wish was not granted.

In actuality， most ASEAN nations traditionally take a neutral stance in the power struggles between major countries， hoping to establish constructive relations with both China and the United States without taking sides.

The United States carrot

From an economic perspective， closer cooperation between ASEAN and the United States can help achieve beneficial results for both sides. Though many ASEAN countries have witnessed rapid development in recent years， some countries are still troubled by poverty and domestic conflicts. If the United States can increase its investment in ASEAN countries and boost bilateral economic activities， it will be of great help in accelerating the economic development of individual countries and the Southeast Asian region as a whole.

Despite the pockets of poverty， it is estimated that by 2030， ASEAN could have become the fourth largest economy in the world. And Southeast Asia， as a region with 620 million people and an average annual GDP growth rate reaching 4.6 percent， offers tremendous market potential， including for the United States. Therefore strengthening bilateral economic cooperation would also bring enormous economic benefits to American businesses.

Nonetheless， some observers claimed that the Obama administrations efforts to strengthen ties with ASEAN nations is not simply to achieve economic benefits， but also to solidify the American presidents political legacy as he is in his last year in office.

In an article by Yu Xiang， a scholar on U.S. studies with the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations （CICIR）， published on the website of the Outlook Weekly magazine， the author said the United States Asia-Pacific rebalancing strategy is one of the major priorities of Obamas foreign policy， and relations with ASEAN is one of its pillars. By hosting this special U.S.-ASEAN meeting， President Obama tried to consolidate his legacy as it is unknown if the subsequent administration will continue his policies.

Since the Obama administration announced the “pivot to Asia” strategy， Washington has attached an increased level of importance to relations with ASEAN countries. President Obama has paid seven visits to ASEAN countries since taking office in 2009 and has held six group meetings with ASEAN leaders. Last November， his administration also upgraded the U.S.-ASEAN relationship from partnership to strategic partnership.

Thai scholar Thitinan Pongsudhirak， Director of the Institute of Security and International Studies of the Chulalongkorn University， takes a similar view. In a recent opinion story published on the website of the Bangkok Post， Pongsudhirak claimed that the narrative and thrust of the United States rebalancing strategy suggests that the recent Sunnylands meeting was therefore partly intended to boost Obamas foreign policy credentials even at this “lame duck” stage.

Jia Xiudong， a senior researcher with the China Institute of International Studies， told Beijing Review that the hosting of the special meeting underlines the strategic importance that Obama had placed on his strategy of rebalance to the Asia-Pacific region， and that he may be trying to leave an impression of“steadfastly continuing down the road he started.”

No side-taking Prior to the meeting， some Western observers and news outlets tried to hype up that the South China Sea issue would be on top of the agenda. However， the final joint statement issued by the parties refrained from any kind of name-calling.

President Obama also did not specifically reference China， though he reiterated the United States position in regards to the dispute. Speaking at the conclusion of the meeting， Obama said that the American and ASEAN representatives “discussed the need for tangible steps in the South China Sea to lower tensions， including a halt to further reclamation， new construction and militarization of disputed areas.

Zhou Yongsheng， a professor with Chinas Foreign Affairs University told Beijing Review that it was reasonable that most ASEAN countries exercised restraint on the South China Sea issue during the meeting. Zhou explained that， though ASEAN countries hope to work with the United States， they are not willing to endorse Washingtons“provocative” policy to go against China.

In Jias analysis， China does not need to worry about the warmer relations between ASEAN and the United States， as China seeks non-exclusive cooperation in Southeast Asia. “ASEAN-China cooperation and ASEAN-U.S. cooperation do not repel each other. The three parties can surely cooperate and achieve trilateral benefits in the region，” he said.

In some ways， it seems that China has enjoyed closer relations with ASEAN in recent years than that of the United States. According to official statements， the China- ASEAN relationship is currently moving from the “golden decade” to the “diamond decade.” There is significant interest in deepening cooperation between China and ASEAN. In fact， China has been the largest trading partner of ASEAN since 2009， and the current China-ASEAN trade volume doubles that between ASEAN and the United States.

In his article， Yu of the CICIR also noted that each of the 10 ASEAN member states have joined the China-initiated Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank， and most ASEAN countries have shown great interest in Chinas initiative of building the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road， hoping that their own national development can share in the dividends.

So it is not surprising that most ASEAN members do not want their relations with China to hinge only on South China Sea island claims.

In January， when meeting with visiting U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry， Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen said，“for the South China Sea issue， we should not take gasoline to douse on fire， but try to encourage the countries concerned in the dispute to continue negotiations with each other because ASEAN has no rights to measure land for any sides.” He added that he believes Viet Nam and China， as well as China and the Philippines， should negotiate with each other.

That sentiment mirrors Chinas position that ASEAN as an economic bloc is not a party to territorial disputes， so disagreements should be resolved bilaterally.

In an article published on February 15 by Xinhua News Agency， Ngeow Chow Bing， a scholar from the University of Malayas Institute of China Studies， said that the United States should think more toward economic cooperation with all Asia-Pacific countries， including China， in its Asia pivot rhetoric rather than focusing too much on territorial issues. Ngeow added that while all ASEAN countries would prefer the United States to continue to have at least some presence， that presence should not be seen as making ASEAN countries feel compelled to pick a side between the United States and China.