Merkel’s Dilemma

By+Wu+Huiping

The EU seems to have gotten used to facing crises one after another： terrorism at home， refugees from abroad， and global financial instability that cannot seem to go away. In the backdrop of woes brought from both inside and out， the EU needs a cohesive force—and strong leaders—to deal with them.

But traditional European powers such as France and Britain are finding it difficult to undertake leadership within the EU.

Britain always hesitates to lead EU affairs， seeing itself as distinct from the rest， and is planning a referendum on whether or not it will stay in the EU at all. France meanwhile is busy with its own problems， including dealing with the aftermath of two separate terrorism sprees in Paris last year.

Meanwhile， the European Commission， basically the government of the 28-member bloc， is too weak and slow to make timely decisions about each new challenge.

In contrast， Germany is the member state that should take the helm on EU affairs. Indeed， over the last 10 years， under the leadership of Chancellor Angela Merkel， Germany has played a leading role in EUs internal affairs and regional issues， such as keeping Greece in the eurozone and facilitating political mediation in the Ukrainian crisis. The EU is increasingly relying on Merkels Germany， and her own political prowess， to offer solutions when it encounters a crisis.

Undoubtedly， Germany has ascended to an unprecedented position in the EU today. Meanwhile， Europe is benefiting from a prosperous Germany much more than ever before. In particular with the eurozone debt crisis， Germany has played an indispensable role in dealing with the issue. Many member states are calling on Germany to assume a leading country role in the EU structure.

Yet it is also true that Germany dominates the EU in many aspects rather than merely nudging. Germany uses its economic clout to defend the EU system and European order， helping member states to work together through negotiations and rule-making and promoting Germanys experience of political and economic development in Europe. As a result， Germany achieves the trust and support of other EU states.

Still Germany cannot afford to undertake the huge responsibility and heavy burden as the lone leading regional power in Europe. What Germany wants is to carry on its ideas， patterns and solutions， and defend its national interests. In the end， leading the EU may prove too difficult.

Germanys efforts

When refugees began surging into Europe last year， some EU member states called on Germany to play a leading role in coping with the crisis. Merkel adopted a moderate policy to provide asylum for seekers from North Africa and the Middle East. The number of migrants accepted by Germany now exceeds that of any other EU state.

To a great extent， what attitude the EU would take toward migrants or refugees was up to Germany； almost every leader in the EU was watching Berlins moves.

Germany has actively worked together with France， Austria and other frontline countries to seek a comprehensive solution for the migrant crisis. Germany and France， twin engines of the EU， rose to prominence as they volunteered their leadership. Merkel and French President Fran？ois Hollande gave a joint speech at the European Parliament on October 7， 2015， calling on the EU to keep solidarity and share the burden of the refugee influx.

Under the efforts of these leaders， the EU ended much of the confusion and changed the adverse situation for the better. The German Government has since adopted a series of measures on refugees， which sets an example for other member states. On the whole， the EU has reached coordination and cooperation among its members to deal with this issue in the near term.

Germanys influence was extremely important during the debates over potential solutions. On one hand， Poland， Hungary， the Czech Republic and Slovakia， four East European members， stood together against the refugee quota plan. Denmark， Britain and Ireland also refused to join in the scheme. Despite great opposition， Germany， together with the European Commission， France， Spain and other members， persuaded the EU Justice and Home Affairs Council to approve a quota-based resettlement plan on September 22， 2015.

External limitations

While winning applause from the international community at large， Merkels actions in dealing with the migrant crisis has aroused criticism from countries that have been overburdened with incoming refugees.

Hungarian Prime Minister Orban Viktor accused Germany of abusing humanitarianism in order to force other countries to accept refugees. Orban stressed that the crisis was caused by Germany rather than Europe or Hungary， because Germany is most refugeesideal destination. Czech media criticized Berlin for imposing its will. Going further， the Slovakian Government appealed to the European Court of Justice at the beginning of December 2015， demanding the revocation of the refugee quota plan. President of the European Council Donald Tusk has slammed the plan as “power politics.”

The system of the EU was designed to prevent hegemony over Europe and to spur greater economic coordination for the benefit of all members. Hence， any perceived domination of Germany on EU affairs causes annoyance amongst other member states. Although France and Germany， the two founding members of the European Community， always call for solidarity of the EU， the divide between EU member states has widened. East European members dont want to be overwhelmed with refugees and ask that “rich countries like Germany”undertake more responsibility.

In fact， any one country could not afford to solve the refugee problem due to its scale and complexity， a scale that has already exceeded 1 million with hundreds of thousands more expected. So far， Merkel has tried to make the EU reach a common solution， but Germany lacks the means necessary to prompt other members to take action. Instead， Germany is merely able to cooperate with some members on a voluntary basis.

European integration necessitates compromise among all members to balance interests； the EU is unable to force its members to do something through mandatory means. For example， since the election in October 2015， the new administration of Poland has refused to cooperate under the Germany-proposed refugee resettlement solution.

Policy shift

Meanwhile， Merkel is also facing growing domestic pressure for her policy of accepting refugees.

The sexual assaults on women in Cologne and other German cities on New Years Eve have shocked the country. Local police officials said that the perpetrators of assaults in Cologne were almost exclusively from migrant backgrounds.

In the following days， riots broke out when far-right extremists participated in antimigrant demonstrations in some German cities. Retaliatory attacks took place in Cologne on January 10， in which at least 11 people from Pakistan， Syria and Guinea were hurt.

Right-wing groups in Germany now accuse Merkel of putting women at risk by allowing the arrival of so many foreigners.

Historically， migrants have not been warmly welcomed in Germany. Moreover， the German Government had opposed the EUs quota system for migrant resettlement for quite a long time. But no matter how to measure it， through population or economic strength， Germany should accept more migrants than most of its neighbors.

Unfortunately， following the sexual violence in Cologne， Germanys policy on migrants might turn conservative in order to soothe domestic opposition.

More importantly， Germany now has neither the desire nor ability to take the position of the EU leader in coping with more challenges. Germanys diplomacy depends on its strength， so it cannot overestimate its own capacity and ability to solve EU and world affairs alone.