The Peninsula Puzzle

By+An+Gang

Periodic escalation on the Korean Peninsula has become an annual springtime routine. Each year， along with the routine South Korean-U.S. joint military drill， Pyongyang will respond with its own display including missile launching. Though the situation remains generally stable， the Korean Peninsula is still overshadowed by the dark clouds of the Cold War.

South Korea and the United States kicked off their joint war games， code-named “Key Resolve and Foal Eagle，” on March 2， further complicating an already fragile situation.

North Korea denounced the annual military drills as being provocative in nature and capable of “sparking a war.” Pyongyang warned that North Korean armed forces were fully ready to hit their designated targets with the strongest measures possible， including all manner of ground， sea， underwater， air and cyber strikes.

At the same time， U.S. Ambassador to South Korea Mark Lippert was injured on March 5 in an attack by a knife-wielding South Korean assailant who shouted opposition to the ongoing war games. South Korean President Park Geun Hye described the incident as not only a physical attack on the U.S. ambassador but also an “unpardonable attack on the South Korean-U.S. alliance.” However， Pyongyang called the attack on the U.S. ambassador a “deserved punishment.”

Attempts to break ice

Underlying the palpable tension is the urgent need of North Koreas top leader Kim Jong Un， who has just completed the customary three- year mourning period for his father， to improve the diplomatic environment for his country.

From the beginning of this year， Pyongyang has sent successive signals to Seoul and Washington to the effect that the North Korean Government was willing to work on improving relations， including calling for a “north-south”summit， repatriating some U.S. hostages and offering to declare a moratorium on nuclear testing in exchange for Seoul and Washingtons cessation of their joint military drill. Nevertheless， Pyongyang did not receive a very warm response. Seoul and Washington explicitly refused to cancel their joint war games and claimed Pyongyangs proposal carried with it an implicit threat.

According to reports by Russian and South Korean media， Kim will attend a ceremony in Moscow in May to mark the 70th anniversary of victory over Nazi Germany in World War II. A report from Indonesia also claimed that Kim will visit Bandung this April to attend the celebrations in commemoration of the 60th anniversary of the Bandung Conference. These two reports have yet to be confirmed by Pyongyang. If they are true， it means that Kim is presenting himself as a head of state in the international community through multilateral platforms. This begs the question， should the leaders of South Korea and the United States appear together with Kim on those occasions， is it possible that they will allow their relations to thaw through the exchange of a handshake？

The Obama administration normalized its relations with Cuba last year， and had sought to reach an agreement for nuclear talks between Iran and the so-called P5+1 countries （China， Russia， the UK， France， the United States and Germany）. These moves have triggered speculation in the international community as to whether or not Washington will also take the initiative in adjusting its policies on North Korea. However， no signs have emerged in the past three months that the Obama administration has any such intentions.

North Korea needs to return to the six-party talks to discuss the prospects of its nuclear program. If it fails to do so， pressure from the international community will continue and will not subside on the basis of a few visits to other countries.

Continued isolation

The U.S. military presence on the Peninsula， the continually strengthened U.S.-Japan-South Korea tripartite alliance as well as the intermittent military clashes between the North and South have all prevented North Korea from focusing on its most pressing domestic task： improving its peoples standard of living.

Since taking office three years ago， Kim has focused on consolidating his personal authority， reshuffling personnel， casting out potential dissidents as well as strengthening the countrys armed forces. He has also devoted most of his time and energy to the countrys livelihood projects. In the meantime， North Korea has relentlessly pursued development of its nuclear program as well as the launching of satellites， and conducted its third nuclear test， a move which has damaged its relations with the international community and posed even more challenges for Kim with regard to turning over a new leaf in his countrys development.

Recently， Pyongyang and Seoul as well as Washington have battled on a nontraditional， asymmetrical playing field. An annual report on global security threats issued by the United States on February 26 identifies the threat of cyberattack as the biggest peril currently facing the United States， naming North Korea as a major danger. South Koreas JoongAng Daily website reported on February 10 that there are seven hacker groups comprising a total of 1，700 hackers working within the North Korean Workers Party and National Defense Commission. At the end of 2014， Washington accused Pyongyang of hacking Sony Pictures prior to the release of comedy film The Interview， which depicts an assassination attempt on North Koreas supreme leader. Though Pyongyang denied involvement， the United States exacted its revenge by shutting down North Koreas Internet and 3G mobile network twice in December 2014 and imposing sanctions against three North Korean governmental organs as well as 10 officials.

China-North Korea relations have also been mired in an exceptionally difficult set of circumstances since the 1990s. North Koreas insistence on developing nuclear weapons does not conform to Chinas strategic security interests. China has not only stringently fulfilled its obligations to impose sanctions on Pyongyang， but also exerted its influence through bilateral channels to push its neighbor to suspend the nuclear program and return to the six-party talks unconditionally， so that its neighbor can concentrate on improving peoples quality of life and making economic headway. Up to now， the current heads of state of the two countries have not met for talks since assuming office.

North Korea has consequently pinned its hopes on renewing relations with Russia， South Korea， Japan， and even its archenemy， the United States， so as to leverage its relations with China and extricate itself from diplomatic isolation. However， owing to the Ukraine crisis and the drop in international oil prices， Russia itself faces severe Western sanctions and an economic downtown， thus it cannot offer North Korea sufficient support. Meanwhile， given their inherent mistrust of Pyongyang， neither the United States nor South Korea is willing to work with the “hermit kingdom.” Although Japans Shinzo Abe administration has sent a delegation to North Korea to investigate the issue of “missing Japanese citizens，” the mission was soon suspended under pressure from the United States. Most importantly， all relevant parties share the same attitude toward Pyongyangs nuclear program and a common goal： pursuing a Korean Peninsula that is free of nuclear weapons， which is “mission impossible” given North Koreas ardent pursuit of nuclear technology and capabilities.

Over the years， North Korea has successively upgraded its nuclear technology and attempted to launch satellites. The United States has concluded that North Koreas ulterior motive is to gain the ability to launch a direct nuclear attack upon U.S. soil. Washington also believes that it is possible that North Korea could disintegrate internally. Thus， seen from both the domestic and international perspectives， there is no motivation for the United States to alleviate pressure on Pyongyang. The United States monitors North Korea on a daily basis to guard against any possible attacks on itself and its allies， while in the long run， it is waiting for Pyongyang to crumble from within. In addition， for the purposes of containing China， through maintaining a U.S. military presence on the Korean Peninsula as well as suppressing Tokyo and Seouls nuclear power plans， it is arguable that Washington is deliberately maintaining a moderate degree of tension on the Korean Peninsula for its own strategic interests.

The fundamental reason for the current Korean Peninsula deadlock lies in the fact that there is no turning back on North Koreas nuclear tests； and that North Korea feels a sense of insecurity owing to what it perceives as hostility on the part of the United States and South Korea. Therefore， even if the Six-party Talks were to be restored， a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula would still represent a goal that is unlikely to be achieved.

However， the current economic stalemate which owes to longstanding sanctions on North Korea requires the nation to improve its relations with other countries. The international community， preoccupied with the mission to create a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula， should not turn a deaf ear to its legitimate concerns. n