NEW CHALLENGES

By+Kerry+Brown

The National Peoples Congress， Chinas top legislature， opened its annual full session on March 5. Both the Report on the Government Work delivered by Premier Li Keqiang at its opening and the press conference held on March 8 by Foreign Minister Wang Yi on its sidelines made one thing abundantly clear： What happens inside China is linked to and profoundly affects the outside world. Likewise， what happens in the world outside China has a big impact on the country. The search therefore for harmony between the inner and outer realms is important.

But this is hard to achieve because， as former British diplomat Robert Cooper made clear in a book he wrote in the early 2000s， while governments can try to control the levers of policy and influence in their internal affairs， most of these are not relevant and strong once you cross your own border. With foreign affairs， the choice to have some kind of impact over the actions of others is reduced to moral persuasion， intellectual influence， appeal to self-interest， and—in the most extreme cases—force. Each carries high risks， and has a significantly high rate of failure.

Global responsibility

China needs to think about these issues because in terms of its international role and status， it is now in a unique position， one which has much promise but many threats and challenges. Listening to the menu of issues that Foreign Minister Wang spoke about only underlines this new situation. There are few places in the world now where China does not have to take a position， whether it be on issues in the Middle East and in particular Irans potential nuclear program， development challenges in Africa， Russias problems with America and Europe over Ukraine， or issues closer to home—India， Myanmar and North Korea. On all of these， Wang had to devote some time.

Ironically， the most important of all the foreign relations—that with the United States—got the most straightforward response. President Xi Jinping will visit the United States later this year， continuing an unprecedented period of high-level engagement between the two powers. Few current world leaders have gotten to know each other better than Xi and President Barack Obama. The fruits of this were seen in the hugely important climate change accord agreed in Beijing between the two countries last November. Sino-U.S. relations are complex， but they are now underpinned by a very real foundation of common interest and understanding on both sides. That is good news for the rest of the world.

Beyond relations with the United States， things quickly become less straightforward. Under Xis leadership， China has started to describe the outside world in a number of “metanarratives”—easy-to-remember monikers by which other regions and countries have their relationship with China summarized by a single phrase. China and the United States are building a new model of major-country relations； China and the EU have established partnership for peace， growth， reform and civilization. With Russia and the continent of Africa， China is seeking distinct comprehensive strategic partnerships. The most ambitious of all these phrases is “the New Silk Road” or what Wang called “the Belt and the Road，” which covers a vast network of different countries across Central Asia and into the South and Southeast Asian regions.

The use of this phrase works in two areas. Despite embracing such a wide variety of countries and partners， it creates a common sense of reciprocity. The land and maritime silk roads are shared between different partners and stress the trade and cultural links they have in common. Their fundamental point of convergence is economic commonalities， something that appeals to everyones understanding of what best serves them and where they have strong incentives to engage with others on an equal basis. However， the Silk Road concept—while it talks of the present and future—looks back to history， and to patterns of engagement that， in some cases， have existed for many centuries. That gives it a more stable feel. It is not something being created from scratch， but is rather being reenergized and reinvigorated.

Because of Chinas economic prominence now， it does need messages like this by which the outside world can understand it. Over the last decade， phrases like the “peaceful development of China” have been tried， but they tended to make foreign partners wary， because of the stress they placed on China， rather than Chinas place in the world. The new grand narratives in a sense achieve this， by talking much more about the global context. “New-model of major-country relations” with the United States，“partnership for peace， growth， reform and civilization” with the EU， and “New Silk Road” not once contain the word “China.” They convey instead a cosmopolitan outlook. In that sense， they are united by linking into an idea of China being a cosmopolitan power.

Respectful relations

This leaves the thorny issues of how China deals with the responsibilities of being this new cosmopolitan， prominent power. Foreign Minister Wang mentioned some of them—the relationships with India， Russia， and Iran， for instance. The tactic hinted at for each of these was to ensure that the trade links were strong and investment flows prominent to the extent that other partners would be at least nominally tied into responsible obligations and respectful relationships. China has maintained solid links with Russia despite the ongoing crisis over Ukraine， and has achieved a major new energy deal last May. It is also taking part in very significant negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program， playing a mediating role—something that it has been able to do because of its significant investments and interests in Iran in the field of energy. In India， bilateral visits in 2014 allowed Xi to visit the giant neighbor and declare over $20 billion in new investments.

Chinas links with each of these countries do also expose it to becoming involved in potential crisis management in the future. For India， the main issue is the unresolved border. It would be a big diplomatic coup for India and China to be able to agree on this issue， though at the moment， there is little sign of any imminent breakthrough. But as the worlds two largest developing economies continue to grow in importance， the uncertainty and instability that these border issues bring will become increasingly incongruous. Perhaps once the shared economic interests between the two are so great that they outweigh other issues， then the border will become easier to discuss， and rapidly solve itself. Late Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping often talked of problems that seemed insurmountable at the time but which eventu- ally almost solved themselves. That is what we have to hope for in this situation.

The issues with Iran and Russia are more immediately pressing， however. China has to be prepared for increasing diplomatic pressure on both of these， in the short- to medium-term future. Iran， while the most dramatic， is probably one where compromise might be most possible. The United States under Obama has run out of energy in trying to take the lead in solving the seemingly endless problems in the Middle East. It is keen to find new partners. War in Syria has become messy， creating a space for extremists and fanatics. A nuclear moratorium with Iran， despite the bellicose pressure of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu when he addressed U.S. Congress in early March， is still the preferred option. Chinas role here is evidently a very important one， and so far， as Wang made clear， it has been content to play that， holding a series of discussions with Iranian counterparts.

Russia， however， is a more problematic issue. Relations between Russia and Europe have deteriorated fast， as they have with the United States. Russian President Vladimir Putin has been heavily criticized in EU capitals， and in Washington. Figures as august as Henry Kissinger have warned of a looming new Cold War. Resentment in Moscow over interference with its neighbors by the United States and the EU in particular has grown over the last few years. A ceasefire agreed in Ukraine earlier this year looks fragile. Pressure in the United States to consider arming Ukrainian fighters has been growing. This would have unpredictable consequences in a highly volatile， unstable area.

China has uniquely maintained positive relations with all the different parties involved， from Russia to the United States. It has a strong strategic interest in the stability of the Central Asian region. It wants a benign， predictable regional environment as it continues to face the immense list of developmental challenges that Premier Li outlined on March 5. So the recent tensions between Russia and other countries are something that Beijing will be watching very anxiously. Foreign Minister Wang reaffirmed Chinas commitment to no interference in the internal affairs of other countries， a longstanding policy position from the mid-1950s. But issues like Russia and Ukraines conflict show how blurred the edges are now between the inside and outside worlds for nation states. Very reluctantly， China may well find that it is called upon to take up a mediation role in international disputes far more frequently and heavily than it wants to. This is the largest single challenge for the new Chinese diplomacy we see emerging.endprint