Near ISIS Threat

By+li+Wei

the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham （ISIS）， although currently limited to fighting in north Iraq and east Syria， has managed to gain the support of Muslim extremists from across the world—igniting a trend that threatens to expand their jihad outside the confines of the war-torn Middle East.

The notorious ISIS group has committed a string of bloody atrocities since its dramatic rise in Iraq and Syria in June 2014—beheading， stoning， massacring and enslaving its victims—which has triggered worldwide outrage and prompted a U.S.-led airstrike campaign. With U.S. support， the land offensive of ISIS militants has been frustrated by Kurdish militias and Iraqi security forces in recent months. For example， ISIS has failed to seize Kobane， a border town in north Syria neighboring Turkey， from the hands of local Kurds.

Despite a relative retreat in the battlefields of Iraq and Syria， the ISIS group continues to launch terror attacks and open new frontlines in other countries. As retaliation against the coalition airstrikes， some ISIS militants from Western Europe and Australia have returned to their home countries and conducted terrorist attacks.

Not limited to the West， ISIS extremists have also shown activity in Central Asia， South Asia and Southeast Asia， reminding all governments in these regions to stay alert to the spreading ISIS threat.

Expanding east

Since last September， ISIS has sustained heavy losses in battles with the U.S.-led coalition. Although ISIS still controls some strategic areas in north Iraq and east Syria， it faces difficulties in launching a new round of large-scale offensives. Moreover， the group cannot afford the high cost of a protracted war. Thus， it has instead sought to relieve its besieged situation by opening other battle frontlines in countries outside the Middle East.

Islamic extremism has long held deep roots in the soil of many regions of Central and South Asia. The Taliban and Al Qaeda remain active in remote border areas of Afghanistan and Pakistan. After the United States and NATO completed the withdrawal of combat troops from Afghanistan at the end of 2014， security defense has been weakened at this critical intersection of South Asia， Central Asia and the Middle East. They may sense an opportunity to develop its influence in regional countries.

Russian media reported in late January that ISIS plans to spend as much as $70 million to open a second frontline in Central Asia.

It is estimated that more than 1，000 Central Asian militants are fighting with the ISIS group in Syria and Iraq. In a sign that ISIS has successfully penetrated into these countries， the flag and slogans of the group have appeared in places such as Tashkent， capital of Uzbekistan. The specter of extremism could have a lasting impact on the security situation of Central Asia.

South Asia is not immune to the influence of ISIS. Intelligence has shown that the group has begun to recruit fighters in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Local extremist groups like Tehrike-Taliban in Pakistan have expressed support for the ISIS group. Moreover， ISIS has plotted a number of attacks against local government and military targets and Shiite residences in southwest Pakistans Baluchistan province. In some remote areas， local supporters of ISIS have even dared to wave the groups black flag on the street.

In Bangladesh， local police arrested seven ISIS supporters and ferreted out 10 kg of explosives at their residence last September. The suspects intended to bomb local targets and then flee to the battlefields of Syria.

The ISIS flag also appeared at a protest assembly in Indian Kashmir last July. A month later， Indian police captured four suspects who tried to leave for Syria to join ISIS by sneaking across the border into Bangladesh.

Southeast Asia is another region where ISIS has sought support from Muslim extremists， with recruitment activity first seen in 2012 when the group was a branch of Al Qaeda in Iraq. After the group claimed the establishment of a caliphate last June， a number of Islamic religious clerics in Southeast Asia immediately swore allegiance to its leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Many ISIS recruitment videos have been viewed on the Internet across Southeast Asia.

Furthermore， the ISIS group desires to control all Islamic extremist factions to serve the caliphate. Over the past 14 years， Al Qaeda has been badly damaged in the U.S.-led war on terrorism， but it still has many affiliated groups across the world. Separated from Al Qaeda， ISIS intends to be the worlds top instigator of Islamic extremist jihad. AlBaghdadi is eager to be the leader of a global caliphate—an Islamic world order. Thus， establishing bases in Central and South Asia is a key step to realize expansionary ambitions.

China under threat

Chinese extremists are among the international ISIS fighters in Syria and Iraq. In recent years， the number of illegal border crossings from China to neighboring countries is on the rise—most of which involve smugglers from northwest Chinas xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. Many of them plan to go to Syria and receive military training from ISIS or other militant groups and later launch terror attacks after returning to China. However， traveling to Syria requires them to pay a high price， and may even cost them their lives.

In one recent outbreak of violence， a shooting occurred in a vietnamese police building near the China-viet Nam border on April 18， 2014， killing two vietnamese police officers and eight Chinese citizens. On that day， vietnamese police detained 16 Chinese citizens sneaking into viet Nam and prepared to repatriate them to China. Ten of the Chinese suspects made a final assault when they seized guns from three Vietnamese police officers and shot people outside from the window while shouting slogans glorifying Islamic extremism. Local police later put a stop to the attack.

Chinese police detained 852 Chinese extremists trying to sneak into neighboring countries in 2014. On one hand， these extremists are dangerous to both China and neighboring countries. On the other hand， they are also victims of international terrorism.

A Kurdish security officer in Iraq told Beijingbased Global Times in January that the ISIS group executed over 100 of its own militant members during the past six months. Most of the victims—having come from across the world， including three Chinese citizens—were executed for trying to escape from battle. It is reported that there are about 300 Chinese militants fighting for ISIS， originally associated with the extremist East Turkistan Islamic Movement（ETIM）， which seeks to separate xinjiang from China and has conducted a number of terror attacks in China.

The ETIM， which was listed by the UN Security Council as a terrorist group in 2003， has close links with international terrorist organizations including ISIS. The ETIM first established bases in Afghanistan with the help of Al Qaeda， and was later forced into hiding in the border areas of Pakistan after the war on terror. In recent years， as Pakistan cracked down on terrorism， ISIS stepped in to offer support. While ISIS instigates Muslim extremists to go to Syria from China via Central Asian or Southeast Asian countries， the ETIM obtains support and military training， which will ultimately pose a bigger threat to Chinas border areas and Chinese targets abroad.

In the face of the growing threat from the ISIS group， China and neighboring countries should cooperate on sharing intelligence and fighting against terrorism. To eliminate the extremism， they should also intensify efforts to boost economic development and improve social governance in remote areas， as well as cut off domestic Internet links to international terrorism websites. Moreover， border police should closely monitor the backflow of Muslim extremists from Syria and Iraq and prevent them from launching terror attacks.