VISIONS OF THE MARITIME SILK ROAD

Mohamed Noman Galal （former Egyptian Ambassador to China and a scholar on Chinese studies）

The 21st Century Maritime Silk Road and the new Suez Canal project launched by Egypt in 2014 can work together to promote Arab-Chinese trade and cultural relations. These relations date back to the ninth century. If history could guide the future relations， one could anticipate that the new Maritime Silk Road will contribute immensely to the development of these relations to a new and unprecedented level. The Chinese and the Arabs represent two pillars of the 21stcentury global economy—both in terms of economic relations and cultural interaction.

The new Suez Canal is under construction and should be fully functional within two years. This new Suez Canal will provide a waterway for big tankers and ships to cross from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean， carrying goods from Asia to Europe and vice versa. Additionally， it will also feature economic zones and cultural centers on its banks. Along with the new Maritime Silk Road from China to Europe， it will be a pillar for the enhancement of trade and communication. Thus the prospects of the new initiative on the Arab-Chinese relations will be immense.

The New Maritime Silk Road and the Silk Road Economic Belt， which was also proposed by President Xi while visiting Kazakhstan in September 2013， along with the new Suez Canal， will be three mainstays to world trade and the global economy. They will strengthen Chinese economic， trade and cultural relations with the whole world. Thus， they will represent a new civilization based on Chinese traditions， concepts， principles and values as well as its vision for international relations.

The new global civilization will be promoted in the 21st century by China and Egypt as one that is based on harmony， cooperation and reconciliation rather than wars and cut-throat competition that prevailed in the 19th and 20th centuries under Europe and America. This new civilization will be a reflection of the Arab Muslim intrinsic ingredient of a peaceful approach and Chinese traditional culture based on the concept of harmony. It should be noted that neither the Egyptians nor the Chinese have a missionary history.

I anticipate the One Belt and One Road initiatives and the new Suez Canal will have an unprecedented contribution， in an innovative way， to develop China， Egypt and the world at the same time. China and Arab countries have the factors to achieve outstanding economic development through beneficial cooperation， with each boasting human resources， vast markets， and natural resources. Some Arab countries today are facing political unrest that affects their economic development. They are in need of Chinese support—particularly Egypt， which has a long tradition of friendship with China. Today， China needs Arab gas and oil as well as Arab markets. They could complement each other in any industrial or additional projects from which both sides will benefit.

China has come to African and Arab countries to help develop their infrastructure， build schools and hospitals， and train their human resources. In the future， this will be a credit and a great asset to Chinese-Arab and African cooperation. It will be a landmark as well as a benchmark for future cooperation with Western countries.

China in the past was keen on exclusively developing trade ties， contrary to modern Europe that promoted colonialism under the guise of civilization and Christianity. China in the future will continue to build a world civilization through dialogue， trade and investment. Egypt and the Arab world， in turn， will contribute in the same way. This will consolidate globalization with soft power as a base rather than dominating globalization through hard power.

Srikanth Kondapalli（a professor at the Center for East Asian Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi， India）

President Xi Jinping， on a visit to Kazakhstan in September 2013， called for adopting an innovative model of cooperation in building the new economic corridor connecting China with Central Asia and Europe， better known as the Silk Road Economic Belt. Subsequently， during his visit to Indonesia in October of the year， Xi proposed the idea of the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road connecting China with Southeast Asia， the Indian Ocean and Africa. Major benefits of the initiatives include supplying sustainable energy to energy-starved countries， enhancing mutually beneficial trade between regional countries， expanding tourism and providing more avenues for strategic engagement in the post-Cold War era.

As the second largest economy in the world today， China is poised to take advantage of these initiatives. Politically， recent trends demonstrate Chinas outward orientation as it seeks a more active presence in the emerging global and regional orders.

Economically， these strategic initiatives will help China restructure its economic model from inviting foreign investment and establishing export-oriented joint ventures and special economic zones to that of exporting capital initially for infrastructure development and establishing manufacturing zones abroad. As the largest trading partner of over 128 countries and regions， China aims to enhance mutual economic interdependence across vast swathes of regions.

Strategically， these initiatives could cushion China well within its defined “goodneighborliness” policy and overcome any effects of the United States “rebalancing” in the region. As American pressure mounted on China to be a “responsible power” and“security provider” in the last decade， Beijings initiative provides fresh opportunities in the diplomatic sphere at the least， and at most offers leverage in the global and regional power transitions of the 21st century.

However， these ambitious projects face acute， if not insurmountable， difficulties.

Firstly， much of the area that the continental and the Silk Road belt pass through is prone to terrorist attacks. Southwest and Central Asia have seen a sharp rise in terrorism in the last decade targeting innocent civilians and infrastructure projects as well. Multibillion-dollar projects such as the Iran-Pakistan-India and TurkmenistanAfghanistan-Pakistan-India gas pipeline projects have not been completed partly due to instability in the region. These attacks have spilled over even in Chinas Xinjiang and beyond. And on the maritime routes， piracy incidents in the South China Sea and the Gulf of Aden pose challenges. Indeed， more than half of piracy incidents globally were in Southeast Asia in 2014. These could be resolved with bilateral and multilateral efforts.

Secondly， China and other countries need to consider the clashing sovereignties in the regions where the Silk Road and infrastructure projects are to be built. While China has resolved 12 of its 14 land-based territorial disputes， India is expressing reservations on projects passing through Kashmirs northern areas. The South China Sea is also an area of contention. These issues could be resolved through bilateral and multilateral coordination.

Thirdly， the amount of capital necessary to undertake the infrastructure projects in these regions is staggering. China made significant outlays—over $40 billion for the New Development Bank of the BRICS； about $42 billion for the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank； $40 billion for the Silk Road project and about $46 billion in Pakistan. While other countries and agencies will also contribute to the infrastructure projects， China—with nearly $4 trillion in foreign exchange reserves—has taken the lead. Nevertheless， given the relatively low per-capita income in the areas falling under the Silk Road projects， some concerns were raised on whether these stimulus packages are economically viable in the long run.

However， the major challenge for these projects comes from the geopolitical and geostrategic issues—the responses of the major powers like the United States and Russia and regional powers. The United States first announced a “re-balancing” strategy in 2010， although it has struggled to gather steam and with the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan and focus on North Africa and the Middle East， China could still actively pursue its own strategy. Another major challenge stems from Russia， which has a strong position on CSTO. While China gathered strength in the Central Asian region through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization， Beijing was unable to replace Russian influence in the region as evidenced by little progress in free trade proposals or military security initiatives.

While India is one of the founding members of both the BRICS Bank and Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank， it declined to endorse the Maritime Silk Road idea during former Chinese State Councilor Dai Bingguos visit in early 2014 or during President Xis visit to India last September—indicating a measured response. Indian responses are also concerned with its“strategic autonomy” principle， guarding sovereignty issues and diplomatic reciprocities. While India is keen to endorse mutually beneficial aspects of the Silk Road initiative， it is weighing the long-term geo-strategic impact of such projects.

Zamroni Salim （a researcher at the Economic Research Center under the Indonesian Institute of Sciences）

The idea of the Silk Roads is not a matter of who proposes it first， but is instead a matter of how we see the common goal to increase countries welfare together. Cooperation and mutual trust should be developed by regional and global communities. The spirit of the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road and the efforts of connectivity development around the globe must be seen as a positive way to increase prosperity for all.

How can a maritime country like Indonesia share in the mutual benefits promised by the Maritime Silk Road？ In recent times， Indonesia has neglected the development of its maritime sector. As an archipelago country， Indonesia has a great opportunity to seize its potential and provide a real improvement in the livelihood of its people.

Indonesias prosperity and political sovereignty depend highly on maritime development. Indonesian President Joko Widodo declared at the Ninth East Asia Summit on November 13， 2014， that Indonesia should be the fulcrum of the maritime world. The two strategies outline key objectives； namely， developing inward maritime routes through the ocean highway or Tol Laut， in addition to its outward-oriented maritime strategy. Both of these strategies to achieve maritime sovereignty are coherent with the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road.

How can ASEAN countries in general—and Indonesia in particular—reap the mutual benefits by exploiting the Maritime Silk Road？ Cooperation between China， Indonesia， and other countries geographically adjacent to the Maritime Silk Road may be implemented through， but is not limited to， infrastructure and connectivity development. The 21st Century Maritime Silk Road infrastructure and investment funds could be an alternative source of economic development in the ASEAN region.

China already pledged to provide a massive investment fund for the development of infrastructure and connectivity along the countries adjacent to the project. The total amount of around $50 billion will trigger the development of basic infrastructure and promote international trade and investment. The idea of taking part through production networks align with the characteristics of the ASEAN Economic Community as a single market and production base.

Specifically for Indonesia， the bilateral cooperation may be viewed as a framework for a much wider scope of cooperation beyond sea infrastructure and related industries， to also include railway and land transportation， logistics， fishery， etc. As part of the constructive efforts to manifest the maritime fulcrum， President Jokowi has proposed the development of around 24 sea ports to serve the ocean highway from the West to the East.

The promising 21st Century Maritime Silk Road initiative and Indonesias Maritime Fulcrum should not been seen as political obstacles， and should instead be welcomed as ways to increase economic development and peoples prosperity together without hindering the jurisdiction and economic autonomy of our neighbors.

From the perspective of game theory， the coherent efforts of China， Indonesia and other countries to achieve maritime prosperity should be seen as a cooperative project， not as a prisoner-dilemma game. Mutual trust， cooperation and conflict management should be at the forefront of our relations as we seek to increase prosperity for the people of our nations， including through the implementation of the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road.