減少不平等將促進經濟增長

At first glance， it would seem this year’s Davos summit will be off to an auspicious start， with news that the global economy is recovering faster than anticipated.

Yet a closer look at the global situation reveals a potentially dangerous gap between profits and people.

Corporate profits are up and global equity markets are looking forward to another year of plenty， while at the same time unemployment and household incomes stand still.

The ILO’s Global Employment Trends 2014， which comes out this week， shows clearly that the modest economic recovery has not translated into an improvement in the labour market in most countries.

Businesses have been sitting on cash or buying back their own stocks， rather than investing in productive capacity and job creation. In part， this is a result of continued weakness in aggregate demand， both at national and global levels. It is compounded by uncertainty about where new sources of demand will come from and uncertainty about public policies， for example on financial sector reform.

The increased flow of profits and liquidity into asset markets rather than the real economy not only increases the risk of stock and housing price bubbles， but also damages long-term employment prospects.

In developing countries， informal employment remains widespread， and the pace of improvements in job quality is slowing down. That means fewer people are moving out of working poverty.

Add to that the fact that in most countries， workers have been getting a smaller share of national income and of gains in productivity， while more of the income is going into profit， and we have a major problem.

Inequality is reflected in the depressed incomes of most households and therefore constrains consumption growth， which in turn reduces economic growth. It also causes public frustration， raising the risk of instability – the current unrest in many countries is fuelled by perceptions of unfairness.

US President Barrack Obama recognized this when he recently called inequality “the defining challenge of our time.”

Boosting demand for goods and services would go a long way towards creating the incentive required for companies to expand and create jobs. And that entails moving away from the aggressive fiscal consolidation pursued in many countries. It also means addressing the declining share of economic growth going to workers， stagnant wages and high unemployment that have kept household spending down.

Increased wages lead to increased demand， so a key part of the solution is to set appropriate minimum wages and to have policies that reinforce the links between productivity and wages. Indeed， President Obama has called for raising the minimum wage and a similar proposal is hotly debated in Britain， while the new German government has agreed to create a national minimum wage for the first time.

We need to focus on the productive economy， and make a firm commitment to investing in people， skills and jobs， and reducing economic disparity.

If we fail to act， if we fail to tackle the youth jobs crisis， long-term unemployment， high drop-out rates and other pressing labour market issues， we will be destroying hopes for sustainable growth – and sowing the seeds of further， and perhaps deeper social unrest.

http://www.ilo.org/global/about-the-ilo/newsroom/comment-analysis/WCMS_234482/lang--en/index.htm

今年的達沃斯峰會召開在即，有消息稱全球經濟正在以比預計更快的速度復蘇。這乍一聽是個好消息，而當你仔細研究，你會發現這一消息揭示了利潤和人們之間潛在的危險缺口。企業利潤上升，股票市場上漲，然而與此同時失業率和家庭收入卻保持不變。國際勞工組織2014全球就業趨勢報告顯示，適度的經濟復蘇在多數國家并沒有帶來勞動力市場的升溫。增加的利潤和流動性資金進入了資本市場，這不僅增加了股票和房價泡沫的風險，還可能損害長期的就業前景。在發展中國家，非正式就業仍非常普遍，工作質量的提升節奏也慢了下來。當大部分的收入成為利潤，工人的勞動所得占全民收入的份額將會更少。家庭收入的低迷反映出了不平等的存在，而正是因為其抑制了消費增長，反而阻礙了經濟增長。加薪意味著需求的增長，所以解決問題的關鍵是建立合理的最低薪資標準，通過政策加強生產力與薪資間的鏈接。