農(nóng)田水利投資與農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟增長的動態(tài)關系研究

曾茂春，曾維忠

摘要：運用向量自回歸與誤差修正模型探析了四川省農(nóng)田水利基建投資和農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟增長之間的動態(tài)關系。結果表明，四川省農(nóng)田水利基建投資與農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟增長之間存在長期協(xié)整關系；但二者并未形成雙向因果關系，農(nóng)田水利基建投資增長會推動農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟增長，而農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟增長并未顯著帶動農(nóng)田水利基建投資的增加；同時，農(nóng)田水利基建投資對農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟的影響存在滯后效應，并且這種影響力度正在減弱。對此，提出加大水利基建投資力度，特別是末端渠系建設投資，加大水利工程管理體制改革等建議。

關鍵詞：農(nóng)田水利投資；農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟增長；動態(tài)關系；四川省

中圖分類號：F323.9 文獻標識碼：A 文章編號：0439-8114（2013）05-1210-04

Study on the Dynamic Relationship of Irrigation Investment and Agricultural Economic Growth：With the Sichuan Province as Example

ZENG Mao-chun1，ZENG Wei-zhong2

（1.College of Economics Management， Sichuan Agricultural University，Chengdu 611130，China；

2.Sichuan Economics and Development Research Center，Chengdu 611130，China）

Abstract： The paper studies the dynamic relationship of irrigation investment and agricultural economic growth using VAR and VECM model. The results show that there is a co-integration relationship between irrigation investment and agricultural economic growth in Sichuan province. But there doesn't exist a two-way causality， the irrigation investment can promote the growth of the agricultural economy， while agricultural economic growth is not directly driven by the increase of irrigation investment. At the same time， the influence of irrigation investment on agricultural economic growth has lag effect， and the influence is weakened. In this regard， this paper puts forward some policy recommendations such as increase the intensity of irrigation investment， especially the end of the canal construction， and reform the management system of hydraulic engineering， etc.

Key words： irrigation investment； agricultural economic growth； dynamic relationship； Sichuan province