Hello, Again

Hello, Again

Vladim ir Putin makes his first state visit to China since his re-election By Ding Ying

R ussian President Vladimir Putin’s upcom ing state visit to China w ill be his first state visit outside the Commonwealth of Independent States since he started his third term as president in May.During the visit scheduled for June 5-7,China and Russia w ill discuss measures to deepen their all-round strategic cooperative partnership in political, econom ic and security cooperation.

Chinese and Russian observers said China and Russia have formed a good tradition of high-level communication, and the two sides need to make more efforts on strengthening economic cooperation and work together to deal w ith security challenges in their region and the world.

Mu tua l trust

According to the schedule, Chinese President Hu Jintao and Putin w ill sign a joint statement of deepening all-around strategic cooperative partnership between China and Russia. The statement w ill call for the establishment of a new security concept based on mutual trust,mutual benefit, equality and cooperation.Chinese and Russian experts pointed out that Putin’s visit w ill set the active tone of developing bilateral relations in next 10 years.

Shi Ze, Director of the Center for Eurasian Security and Development at the China Institute of International Studies, stressed that Putin’s visit to China w ill be a sign that the Sino-Russian relationship has reached a new level. Shi pointed out that in 2010, China and Russia upgraded their relationship to an allround strategic cooperative partnership. “Such a partnership not only poses new demand but also inputs new drive to the bilateral relationship.”

He said Putin’s last visit to China was in September 2010, six months ahead of Russia’s presidential election. China was the only country that Putin visited before the election, he added.

Alexander Lukin, Director of the Center for East Asian and Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Studies at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations,agreed that Putin’s Chinese trip w ill mark good interaction between the two neighbors.“Now we have developed a good tradition on our state leader level,” he said, mentioning that Russia was also the first state that Hu chose to visit after assuming the Chinese presidency in 2003.

Some said it is not necessary to exaggerate the significance of Putin’s visit to China. Guan Guihai, a professor and expert in Russian studies at Peking University, said since Putin is scheduled to attend the com ing SCO Summit on June 6-7 in Beijing, his visit to China is a convenient arrangement.

In May, Putin sent Prime M inister Dmitry M edvedev to participate in the Group of Eight Summ it held in the United States, triggering vast comments throughout the world.Guan said in this context overemphasizing how Putin values the relationship w ith China w ill easily create uncom fortable competition among the three major powers.

Currently, both sides are confident about their relationship. Chinese V ice Foreign M inister Cheng Guoping said on May 29 that Hu and Putin agreed that they w ill continue to treat developing Sino-Russian relations as a diplomatic priority. He also said China and Russia have been fi rm ly supporting each other on issues concerning their respective core interests, while the two sides’ political mutual trust is strengthening.

Russian Ambassador to China Sergey Razov said there are no thorny problems in the Sino-Russian relationship, and the two countries share wide common interests.

Ene rg y coop e ra tion

China and Russia are going to conduct a new round of negotiations on Russia transporting its natural gas through pipelines to China,which is an important part of the two countries’ trade and economic ties.

According to the agreement the two sides signed in October 2009, Russia is going to transfer 70 billion cubic meters of natural gas to China via two pipelines every year for 30 years beginning in 2014. But the two sides have yet to agree on the price. Russia insists China buy the natural gas at $300 to $400 per 1,000 cubic meters, the price at which it sells natural gas to European countries. China believes the price should be $200 per 1,000 cubic meters, which is the price it pays for gas from nations in Central Asia and the M iddle East.

PUTIN’S THIRD TERM:Vlad im ir Putin walks in the Krem lin in Moscow on May 7 as he goes to take his oath of office

Chinese and Russian experts said since the project could greatly benefi t the two countries, they should deal w ith it more patiently.They also said China and Russia need to find new ways to boost their econom ic cooperation along w ith their changed domestic situations.

Guan said the prospect of energy cooperation w ill be “infinite.” But currently,their consuming abilities are very different.Statistics show that Russia’s per-capita GDP in 2011 was about $13,236, while China’s was only $5,432, because of its huge population. “If the Russian natural gas price exceeds Chinese people’s ability to pay, there w ill be no need to rush into an agreement,” he stressed.

Lukin agreed that since the cooperation should be mutually beneficial, the natural gas price should be decided on a level that can satisfy both sides. Besides, even if an agreement cannot be reached, it w ill not influence the other areas of cooperation.

Sergey Luzyanin, Deputy Director of the Institute of Far Eastern Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences, said China and Russia m ight be able to discover a new cooperative method of energy cooperation w ith the involvement of a third country, such as a Central Asian nation.

Cha llenges ahead

China and Russia have formed a stable and active relationship. Observers pointed out that the two countries need to pay more attention to their econom ic cooperation and strengthen cooperation on security issues that challenge regional and global stability.

Shi said since the two countries are both at a crucial moment of econom ic transformation, they need to develop a new cooperative method. In 2011, trade between the two countries reached $79.24 billion. China imported$40.34 billion from Russia, mainly energy and natural resource-related products, and exported $38.91 billion to Russia, mainly machinery as well as electronic and hi-tech products.

“An influential power like Russia w ill not be content to be only a raw material provider for a long time,” Shi said. He said the two sides need to strengthen cooperation in technology to guarantee the healthy and stable development of economic relations. China is also at a crossroad of econom ic transformation, and such cooperation w ill benefit both sides on their modernization, he said. He suggested cooperation between information,transportation and even military enterprises should be encouraged.

Putin and Hu are also expected to discuss international security issues, including the Asia-Pacific region and Syria.

Western countries expelled Syrian diplomats in late May after a massacre of over 100 civilians in a Syrian village. Luzyanin said China and Russia’s stances on the Syria issue are similar. In spite of other countries’ positions, some of which m ight be inconsistent w ith facts, China and Russia should stick to UN agreements on Syria, said Luzyanin.

“If the Syria issue goes out of control, the consequences w ill be much worse than those in today’s Iraq,” he warned. He explained that given Syria’s special position in the M iddle East, the country’s situation w ill influence the whole region and beyond.

Shi said China and Russia should conduct more cooperation in the Asia-Pacifi c region.The United States has announced a plan to deploy an anti-m issile system in the Asia-Pacific region. “Such a plan can only make the regional situation more complicated. China and Russia certainly w ill not accept the plan,” he said.

“If the Russian natu ra l gas p rice exceed s Ch inese p eop le’s ab ility to pay, the re w ill be no need to rush in to an ag reem en t.”

—Guan Guihai, a professor and expert in Russian studies at Peking University