Turkey Turns East

Turkey shifts its strategic focus to the East and enhances economic and political ties with China By Ding Ying

Turkey Turns East

Turkey shifts its strategic focus to the East and enhances economic and political ties with China By Ding Ying

Occupying a special geographic position bridging Asia and Europe,Turkey has been playing a flexible role in affairs of both continents. In recent years, Turkey has changed its previous strategy of looking predominately to the West and revalued its cooperation with the East,especially with emerging markets in the East like China. Experts point out that Turkey’s strategic adjustment will help it exert a greater influence in the Middle East and the Arab world. And the improved Sino-Turkish relationship is going to benefit both sides.

Rising position

Turkey’s biggest city, Istanbul, sits in Europe.But its capital, Ankara, belongs to Asia.Turkey used to be a country that wholeheartedly stood together with the West. In recent years, the Turkish Government changed its policy and emphasized more on the East. This is a wise decision for Turkey, because it will enable the country to have a greater say in the Middle East and the Arab world, instead of simply following the West.

“Turkey has been an important country in the Middle East due to its special geopolitical advantage,” said Wang Jinglie, a research fellow with the Institute of West Asia and African Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS). Wang said the unique geopolitical significance is also the reason why Europe and the United States attach importance to Turkey. In 1952, Turkey became a member of NATO.

Turkey is very proud of this advantage. It is the only Islamic country in NATO, and the only Asian member of the U.S.-led military alliance. Turkey’s predecessor, the Ottoman Empire (1299-1922), where Western and Eastern civilizations coexisted for more than six centuries, was an Islamic empire across Asia, Africa and Europe that played an important role in the Middle East. Turkey has been in close cooperation with the West, and the United States keeps several military bases in Turkey.

From the 1920s to the 1930s, Turkish President Kemal Ataturk conducted a revolution in the country and removed the theocratic system from the country, choosing the West’s path of realizing modernization through industrialization. But the country is still an Islamic country, and religion still influences the country. For example, the current ruling party, the Justice and Development Party(AK Party), is known as a party with a strong Islamic background.

Turkey has desired to join the EU for a long time, said Wang, pointing out that Turkey also carried out reforms in political,economic and social areas for this purpose.The EU fi nally turned Turkey down, and the ruling AK Party decided to pay more attention to the East, he said.

“The EU will not easily accept Turkey as a member for political, economic and cultural reasons,” said Wang. He explained that many European countries are worried about Turkey’s Islamic identification. Besides,Turkey is still struggling between the two civilizations, and it has religious problems and ethnic con fl icts, he added.

Turkey now has over 72.56 million people. By comparison, Britain, whose population currently stands at more than 62 million, will have 72 million people by 2050 according to UN estimates, the most populous EU member. If Turkey were to join the EU,it would occupy more seats in the European Parliament than many current EU members based on its big population, which is another reason why it is not welcomed by the EU,Wang said.

“Even if the EU approved its application,Turkey could only be a marginalized member in the organization. But if it decides to return to the Middle East, it will be an irreplaceable power in the region,” Wang said.

Liu Yueqin, another research fellow with the CASS, pointed out that Turkey’s rising position in the Middle East is closely related to the regional turmoil that has led to a wave of power shifts in the Arab world since early 2011. Now Syria has become a hotspot, making Turkey’s position even more important,said Liu.

Turkey used to maintain a good relationship with the current Syrian administration. But it has taken a tough stance against the Syrian authorities and shown public support to the opposition.Turkey also has a big say in international envoy Ko fi Annan’s mediation efforts.

Because Turkey serves as the de-facto base camp of the Syrian opposition, if the opposition comes into power, Turkey will be more in fl uential in regional affairs, Liu said. If President Bashar al-Assad holds onto power,he will not recklessly cut off normal relations with Turkey because he has more to worry about, she added.

Wang agreed that Turkey has its own considerations. First of all, being a NATO member, Turkey has an obligation to support the West, especially the United States, and coordinate with Western countries on Middle East affairs. Moreover, Assad belongs to a small sect of Islam, the Alawi, while most Syrians are Sunnis. Sunnis are the majority in Turkey as well as in many other secularized countries in the Middle East.

“This is also the reason why many other countries in the region strongly oppose Assad’s regime. Religious elements make the messy situation in the Middle East even more complicated,” Wang said.

Enhancing Sino-Turkish ties

Based on its strategy of turning to the East,Turkey pays more attention to emerging markets in the East, including China. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s recent four-day visit to China reflected Turkey’s shift. Improved bilateral political and economic ties will bring the two countries practical bene fi ts as well as better mutual understanding, analysts said.

Erdogan’s visit was the first one by a Turkish prime minister to China in 27 years.His trip followed Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping’s visit to Ankara and Istanbul in February, which saw the signing of several deals on cooperation in agriculture, finance and banking. During the Turkish prime minister’s visit from April 8-11, the two sides signed several agreements, including an agreement on nuclear energy cooperation and a declaration of intent for completing negotiations on promoting and protecting investment between the two countries, making business the highlight of this trip.

Liu pointed out that since China is an emerging power, maintaining a good relationship with China will deliver benefits to Turkey. Plus, China’s stable and speedy economic growth is another factor attracting Turkey. Before arriving in China, Erdogan declared that Turkey is ready to pursue joint projects with Chinese companies in developing countries in Africa, Central Asia, the Middle East and the Balkans.

WELCOME TO CHINA:Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao welcomes visiting Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Beijing on April 9

Trade between the two countries hit $18.7 billion in 2011, a year-on-year increase of 24 percent. But the balance of trade is heavily in China’s favor. The two countries have set a timetable to increase their trade volume to $50 billion by 2015 and $100 billion by 2020.

“The two countries’ economic structures are complementary to each other, which will bring both sides great opportunities,” said Liu.Also, since China is conducting an economic transition, now is a good time for them to boost economic cooperation.

At a time when Europe and the United States are tortured by financial problems,Turkey has been attracted by China’s strong and reliable economic record, Wang said.

The two experts agreed that maintaining a good relationship with China will help Erdogan and his AK Party gain more support at home.

During Erdogan’s visit, the two sides also enhanced political understanding. Chinese President Hu Jintao said China is ready to deepen political trust with Turkey and respect and take care of mutual core concerns.Erdogan said Turkey is willing to increase high-level exchanges and strategic talks with China, stressing Turkey’s adherence to the“one-China policy.”

The bilateral relationship hit a low in 2009 when Erdogan criticized the Chinese Government for its Xinjiang policy. Erdogan began his visit with a stop at Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. Major developments in Xinjiang impressed him and Turkey is ready to enhance exchanges and cooperation with the region, the Turkish prime minister said.

The two countries still have different stances on many issues. Liu pointed out that China hopes Turkey will show a clear and steady stance on opposing the East Turkistan Islamic Movement, which is targeted as a terrorist organization by China.The two sides also have different opinions on the Syrian issue. Wang agreed that cooperation between the two sides could be bumpy. “But anyway, they can bene fi t from working together,” he said.