Business Class

Economic consideration behind the U.S. pivot to the Asia-Pacific region By Su Jingxiang

Business Class

Economic consideration behind the U.S. pivot to the Asia-Pacific region By Su Jingxiang

ECONOMIC PRESENCE: An assembly line of the Shanghai General Motors Co. Ltd.

The Pentagon’s latest strategic review once again marked the U.S. shift of focus to the Asia-Pacific region. In the view of many Chinese, the new strategy highlights the possibility of a new “Cold War”between China, a rapidly emerging economy,and the United States, the global superpower.

This might be a misunderstanding. The United States is pivoting to Asia not to fi ght against China, but to gain more economic interests in the region, including in China. So China doesn’t need to be worried about the military threat, but has to prepare to cope with a disadvantaged position in an unequal international economic order determined by the United States for the long term.

Controlling global economy

Hegemonic powers in history, from ancient Babylonia, Persia and Rome to the British Empire, all employed military, political and trade means to plunder the treasures of other countries. Chinese revolutionary Sun Yat-sen said in 1917 that the key to British hegemony was not its parliamentary system or industrial revolution, but the treasures of India. Only by controlling the tremendous wealth of India could Britain sustain its powerful navy,occupy colonies around the world and dominate overseas markets. Throughout the 19th century, Britain contained emerging powers such as France, Russia and Germany one after another as its foreign policy. The primary purpose was consistent—preventing them from sharing India and other colonies, the economic lifeline of the British Empire.

Unlike past hegemonic powers, which directly seized the wealth of their colonies,the United States has expanded its strategy to include the whole international system.U.S. hegemony was established and sustained through the current international monetary, fi nancial and trade systems. Since the dollar serves as an international reserve currency, the United States does not need to acquire costly reserves of its own. While emerging economies earn foreign exchange through trade, the United States can always print more dollars. Moreover, the dollars that other central banks keep in reserve are mostly in the form of government bonds.The extra demand weighs on bond yields and sets a lower threshold for the cost of credit, allowing the United States to spend freely. The privilege of being a major reserve currency issuer also helps fi nance U.S.investments in other countries as well as U.S.military bases abroad.

Unparalleled armed forces serve as the most effective means for the U.S. Government to sustain its economic hegemony. Most parts of the world today, from Latin America, West and Central Europe and the Middle East to the Asia-Pacific region, are covered by the U.S.defense system. There are more countries receiving the safeguard of the United States now than during the Cold War. But whether it is Japan, South Korea, Afghanistan or Iraq,any state must pay for the defense umbrella,economically or politically. In recent years,the United States has interfered in the South China Sea territorial disputes between China and some Southeast Asian countries not only for political purposes but also for selling munitions to those countries to earn a pro fi t.

The United States is pivoting to Asia not to fight against China, but to gain more economic interests in the region, including in China

Dictating rules

The U.S. dollar supremacy gives the financial sector of the United States a remarkably dominant position as a main source of funds for the world. This enables the United States to call the shots in the global fi nancial system. The United States assumes the leadership role in many important international economic organizations,including the International Monetary Fund (IMF),the World Bank, the World Trade Organization(WTO) and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

If a country becomes an enemy of the United States, it will be excluded by these international organizations and international markets. As a rule maker, the United States has made reforms to these organizations in its favor. For instance, the IMF decided to carry out measures to promote the completely free flow of capital in 1997, eliminating capital controls in many countries. In the same year,the WTO reached an agreement on the free flow of global financial services, aiming to allow any fi nancial service provider to freely enter its member states and receive national treatment. Undoubtedly, these reforms are bene fi cial to the United States because of its leading economic power.

After the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, the United States tightened its control of the international financial sector by freezing funds of terrorist organizations and countries blacklisted by the United States for sponsoring terrorism. The Libya issue reflected the might of U.S. financial hegemony. The United States and its allied countries froze the overseas assets of Muammar Gaddafi’s government and provided the opposition with military supplies to overthrow Gadda fi, translating fi nancial prowess to political might. This is evidence that the U.S.fi nancial supremacy is not to be underestimated and will last well into the future for all its economic woes.

Courting emerging markets

To prevent the collapse of the U.S. dollar hegemony, the United States needs to overcome dif fi culties with the help of emerging economies.

Though the U.S. financial hegemony can help its companies grasp key technology, funds, materials and overseas markets,the hegemony hurts its national economy.Because of the leading position of the U.S.dollar, over the past several years most capital in the United States has been gathered in the financial sector instead of the manufacturing sector. The real economy of the United States has been damaged by this big fi nancial bubble. Enlarging trade de fi cits mean that U.S.industry is losing its advantages and many of its businesses have retreated from international markets, though the United States still takes the leading position of science and technology around the world.

The outbreak of the global fi nancial crisis in 2008 showed that the U.S. economy had become more frail and unsteady. The privilege of issuing the dominant international reserve currency has proven a curse for the United States. It has lured the country into too much borrowing or printing too much money. Over the long haul, this could shake the economic and political foundations for the privilege.

While trade deficits persist, debt—both public and private—has reached unprecedented levels. These chronic problems will have negative economic consequences for the United States. If that happens, U.S. military superiority would be difficult to maintain.So the U.S. Government clearly knows that addressing economic problems is the most important task right now.

The current world economic structure demands that the U.S. strategy must switch to the Asia-Pacific region, because Asia has become the engine of the world economy.The future of the U.S. economy relies on the growth of emerging economies in the region.U.S. investors hope to gain profits from the growth of the Asian economy to offset domestic deficits and recover the financial sector, thereby reversing the current situation.The strategy indicates that the United States will need to strengthen relations with East Asian countries, and particularly seek political and economic cooperation with China in the long run.

Therefore, the United States is shifting its focus to the Asia-Pacific region not merely for security purposes, but mainly for the need of sustaining economic hegemony. The U.S.-backed Trans-Pacific Partnership Free Trade Agreement, which President Barack Obama went out of his way to advocate at the APEC Summit in November 2011, aims to enable the United States to take a bigger slice of the pie in growing Asia-Paci fi c markets. To some extent,the Pentagon’s ambitious military projects in Asia are designed to boost the military’s influence. But after all, the military is mainly a means to serve U.S. economic interests.