Will the Syrian Ceasefire Work?

Lasting peace is still elusive in Syria even as a fragile truce takes hold By Li Guofu

Will the Syrian Ceasefire Work?

Lasting peace is still elusive in Syria even as a fragile truce takes hold By Li Guofu

The author is a research fellow with the China Institute of International Studies

On April 11, one day before the deadline set by international mediator Kofi Annan, the Syrian Government announced it would halt its military operations on armed opposition groups. Annan, the joint envoy of the UN and the Arab League for Syria, said he received an official letter for the truce. The ceasefire went into effect as of 6 a.m. local time the next morning.To solidify the progress, the UN Security Council unanimously adopted a resolution on April 14, authorizing the deployment of an advance team of unarmed military observers to monitor the truce between Syrian government forces and armed opposition fighters.

Presently, what concerns the international community most is how long the cease fi re can last. Due to the temporary needs of all parties,the cease fi re might be kept in the short term,but in the long run, the political situation in Syria is still uncertain.

Ceasefire

The current Syrian truce is a result of Annan’s six-point plan on ending Syrian violence.Therefore, how the peace plan is implemented is a critical factor for the future peace of the country.

Since the Syrian turmoil began in March last year, there have been acute differences on the issue among the international community. On February 23 this year, the UN Security Council appointed former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan as the UN-Arab League joint special envoy to seek a peaceful settlement of the Syrian crisis. The appointment showed the international community wanted to explore new ways of addressing the Syrian crisis.

After receiving the mission, Annan said the crisis should be settled only by political dialogue, and foreign military intervention would worsen the current situation. He urged the Syrian Government and opposition parties to value the will of the Syrian people and try to work together for a peaceful solution.

After exchanging views with the Syrian Government and opposition, as well as other nations concerned, Annan put forward the six-point peace plan in mid-March. The key point of the plan lies in the Syrian Government’s ceasefire with opposition groups. While avoiding mentioning a regime change, the plan opposes foreign intervention and stresses that the future of Syria is up to the Syrian people. It has therefore gained wide support of the international community.The UN Security Council has released two offi cial statements to offer its support.

The current Syrian ceasefire might last for some time. The cease fi re and the peace plan are not only supported by the international community, but also welcomed by the Syrian people.Neither the Syrian Government nor the opposition can publicly go against the popular will and destroy the peace at the moment. Also, after being severely stricken by government forces, the opposition needs time for rehabilitation. In addition, the deployment of a UN observer mission will be helpful to maintain the cease fi re. With the ceasefire in place, the opposition has begun to take other resistance actions. It has called on the people to take part in anti-government protests to test the Syrian Government’s sincerity in applying Annan’s truce deal.

Uncertainties

Though both the international community and Syrian people hope the ceasefire could be a turning point in the Syrian crisis, the current truce might not bring enduring peace in Syria.In the future, con fl icts and violence could possibly re-emerge.

The biggest threat comes from the intervention of Western countries and some Arab countries. While showing support for Annan’s mediation, they didn’t give up their determination to overthrow the Bashar al-Assad regime. On the one hand, they said they back the cease fi re; but on the other hand,they continue to increase their support for the Syrian opposition. For instance, the United States announced it would offer $25 million in non-weaponry assistance to the Syrian opposition. Britain said it would double its nonmilitary assistance. Qatar and Saudi Arabia have called for arming the Syrian opposition.At the recent Friends of Syria conference, the two countries, together with the United Arab Emirates, pledged $100 million to provide salaries for opposition fi ghters.

The Syrian opposition is fragmented and without unified command. Therefore, it is hard to ask all opposition groups to follow the truce. Moreover, various extremist groups,including Al Qaeda, have joined the opposition. They will try every effort to destroy the cease fi re for their own purposes and interests.In the meantime, the Syrian Government has declared that the army will “remain on standby to retaliate against any attack by the armed terrorist groups against civilians, the security services, armed forces, or private or public property” during the ceasefire. Under these circumstances, it is dif fi cult to realize a real truce in the country.

The Syrian Government has learned a lesson from past experiences. Several months ago,when government forces withdrew from some cities under the requirement of the Arab League observer mission, opposition groups seized the chance to expand their range. So this time, the Syrian Government will not allow the same thing to happen. But the government’s refusal to withdraw heavy weapons and troops gives the opposition an excuse to fi ght back.

UA

Syria weighs much in the region in balancing pro-American and anti-American forces. It is also a strategic base for Iran to project its power in the Arab world and in fl uence the Palestinian-Israeli con fl ict. A regime change in Syria will help the United States reinforce regional pro-American forces and suppress the expansion of Iran. It will also help U.S. President Barack Obama gain more political support at home. Given these huge potential benefits, Obama seems set to push for a leadership transition in Syria.

In this context, Annan’s vision for peace in Syria will not materialize easily. It is predictable that turmoil will persist in the country. Chances for government forces and opposition groups to resume fi ghting remain high.

(Source:www.un.org)

Kofi Annan’s Peace Plan

The Syrian Government should

● commit to working in an inclusive Syrian-led political process to address the legitimate aspirations and concerns of the Syrian people;

● commit to stopping the fi ghting and achieve urgently an effective UN-supervised cessation of armed violence in all its forms by all parties to protect civilians and stabilize the country;

● ensure timely provision of humanitarian assistance to all areas affected by the fi ghting and accept and implement a daily two-hour humanitarian pause;

● intensify the pace and scale of release of arbitrarily detained persons;

● ensure freedom of movement throughout the country for journalists and a non-discriminatory visa policy for them; and

● respect freedom of association and the right to demonstrate peacefully as legally guaranteed.