The Trend of the United States’China Policy in the Next Four Years and China’s Response

By Wu Xinbo

Deputy Dean of Fudan University’s School of International Relations and Public Affairs

In general, the U.S. president will make some policy adjustments in domestic and foreign affairs during his second term.However, there are three aspects that will remain unchanged during Obama’s second term: the basic objective to invigorate U.S. strength and consolidate U.S. global leadership, the focus on the Asia-Pacific and increased input in this region, and the United States’vigilance against China’s development.

In Obama’s first term, competition between China and the United States increased conspicuously. It is widely believed that China’s development is not simply a national rise, but rather a matter of overtaking the United States. Therefore, whether the United States will tolerate China overtaking the United States(and if so how and when) remains a significant question for U.S.government and society. Despite the fact that the United States is showing declining development, that the United States has never been overtaken by any other country since it became the largest economy in the world, and that there exist differences in political system and values between China and the Untied States, U.S. political elites still have difficulty acknowledging the reality of China becoming the number one country in the world. On the other hand, in the coming four years, China will remain on a fast track of economic development. Technological progress will enhance China’s economic competitiveness, and China will further increase its investment abroad, including to the United States. As a result, the Untied States feels a stronger sense of threat from Chinese economy. At the same time, China will continue to advance its military’s modernization, coupled with new military equipment and technology resulting from defense inputs in the past dozen years, therefore the Chinese military force will be substantially enhanced. In this case, the United States will be more and more vigilant against Chinese military force. How the U.S. copes with China’s efforts to surpass the United States will define the U.S. policy toward China in Obama’s second term.

In the next four or more years, the United States will steer the focus of strategy on China from precaution to restraint. It will seek to restrain China’s growth and the expansion of its influence in economic, diplomatic and security areas by way of balancing China with force, restraining China with rules,and controlling China with institutions. The U.S. policy toward China will focus on the following three areas. First, in terms of the economy, the United States will urge China to open more markets, especially the financial market, and to protect intellectual property rights more strictly. On the other hand,the United States will adopt more trade protection measures against Chinese enterprises and obstruct Chinese enterprises from invest in the Untied States under the excuse of national security. Second, in terms of security, the United States is becoming more and more vigilant against the growth of China’s military might. To maintain U.S. military superiority and the country’s dominant capacity in the West Pacific, the United States will further strengthen its military’s deployment in the Pacific region and expand security cooperation with its allies to squeeze China’s strategic space and contain China’s strategic striking ability. The United States will keep a close watch on the development of China’s cyber and space capabilities and will take various countermeasures. Third, in terms of the Asia-Pacific region, as the region grows in importance to the United States, the U.S. will actively involve itself in Asia-Pacific affairs to pursue regional dominance. It will also pay close attention to the expansion of China’s interests and influence in the Asia-Pacific region and try to balance China’s influence via every means possible. For example, the United States may push Asia-Pacific cooperation to balance East Asian cooperation on the economical front; and on the diplomatic and security fronts,the United States may actively develop relations with China’s neighboring countries and apply pressure on China by taking advantage of the conflicts and disputes between China and its neighboring countries through regional institutions like the East Asia Summit, ASEAN Regional Forum, and the ASEAN Post Ministerial Conference.

Viewed from the perspective of U.S. policy formulation and implementation, the Secretary of State under the Obama administration in the first term had strong ideological prejudice against China, while the Assistant State Secretary in charge of East Asian affairs, Kurt Campbell, held a pro-Japan and anti-China strategic perspective. Therefore, the manner in which they dealt with Sino-U.S. relations brought some frictions between the two countries, and this has affected China’s trust regarding the intentions of American policies. During Obama’s second term, the new diplomatic team may treat U.S.-China relations in a different way, which would probably bring some positive changes in communication between the two sides.

Based on the above analysis, China should have new thinking and new measures in its policy toward the United States.

First, as competition between China and the United States becomes more and more prominent, China’s ability to deal with Sino-U.S. competition will be critical for its strategy toward the United States. It is necessary to establish rules for competition.Only competition under rules will guarantee order and the benevolence of competition. Both countries should effectively prevent competition from sliding into confrontation. The rules include non-interference in the domestic politics of others;refraining from provoking relations between the other country and its neighboring countries; the development of economic ties based on mutual benefit; and the lawful interests of the other should not be harmed when dealing with international relations.

Second, both sides should guide Sino-U.S. relations to a benign development through multi-level interactions. Interactions between China and the United States take place at three levels: at the bilateral level, interactions are mostly reflected in economic and trade development, which is largely positive in the bilateral relations; at the Asia-Pacific regional level, interactions feature geopolitical competition to a large extent; and at the global governance level, interactions demonstrate the widespread cooperation between China and the United States, such as Sino-U.S. cooperation in dealing with international economic and financial problems or regional security issues. The Chinese side should consider affecting Sino-U.S. interactions in the Asia-Pacific region through bilateral and multilateral interactions, all with an aim of reducing competition and confrontation in Sino-U.S. interactions and strengthening cooperation in this regard.In the future, it is especially important to strengthen cooperation with the United States in international affairs. Currently, the international system is in the process of transforming. The existing international mechanisms are not effective enough to cope with new challenges in global governance. China is supposed to take on active participation in global governance,as the United States is struggling to take up this leadership role. This will not only demonstrate the constructive role of China’s rise and lessen the suspicions of China from the West,especially the United States; it will also shape international institutions and rules in favor of China.

Third, all parties must work more effectively on economic issues in order to check the U.S. pressure on China in economic and trade areas so as to facilitate the realization of economic interests in dealings with the United States. In Obama’s first term, no substantive progress was made on economic issues that China really cared about, for instance, relaxing restrictions on the transfer of high technology to China, improving the environment of Chinese investment in the United States, and the acknowledgement of China’s market economy status. In the next four years, China needs to make breakthroughs in order to improve U.S. technological transfers to China and in order to ameliorate the investment environment of Chinese enterprises in the Untied States. It is advised: (1) to link these issues with some economic issues that the U.S. is concerned about, for example, the protection of intellectual property rights and the opening of markets; (2) to increase investment in Europe and reduce holdings of U.S. dollars while increasing holdings of Euros and European bonds; and (3) to attach more importance to various states and localities.

Fourth, China should be more active in the security area.First, China needs to propose new ideas in conducting military exchanges and cooperation with the United States to lessen the U.S. military’s negative views of China’s strategic intent. Second,China must strengthen its military and security cooperation with its neighboring countries. And third, it must show a positive and responsible profile in regional and international security issues in order find the converging points of Sino-U.S.cooperation.