A Rough Year in The Middle East

By Liu Baolai

The regional situation in the Middle East has remained unstable this year as a variety of conflicts further intensified. Political structures began to reconstitute. Whereas some Arab countries that have undergone transition encountered great difficulties in restoring social stability, Syrias turbulence continued. Regional hotspot issues like the IsraeliPalestinian conflict and the Iranian nuclear issues remained unsettled. But disputes between Sudan and South Sudan eased up. All these developments took place at a time when Washingtons capability of handling regional affairs in the Middle East is on the decline.

Challenging transitions

Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen and Libya all managed to establish elected governments following power shifts. All of them now have a pluralized political system, a multi-party mechanism and parliamentary democratic elections. Islamic forces won state power or important seats in parliament. As a consequence, other political forces moved to unite and wrestle power away from the Islamic forces.

In the meantime, economic growth in the four countries has slowed considerably, and people are struggling as their living standard falls. For now, none of the governments of these countries seem capable of drawing up a practical development blueprint.

Moreover, the security situation in these countries is unpromising, as governmental departments cannot function well without strong administrations. Anarchism, extremism and nationalism have gained ground over the past months. Activists often organized demonstrations that threatened to further worsen the crisis.

The top priorities of the four countriesruling parties are: stabilizing the political situation starting with power distribution by cooperating with other political parties and military forces; reviving their economies, improving peoples livelihoods and bringing hope to their people by making workable development plans; and adjusting their foreign policies to project positive images to the outside world.

These ruling parties still need to deal with challenges, such as their relationship with strong military interest groups. Governments of the four countries are working on their independent and balanced foreign policies to keep a distance from Western countries. These tasks will test their administrative capability and wisdom.

Reforms in monarchies

Since the beginning of this year, the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have been busy carrying out reforms to improve social welfare, womens status and peoples livelihoods.

They have paid more attention to infrastructure construction. For example, the six countries planned to invest $30 billion to build a 2,200-km railway network together. They also launched respective railway construction projects at home, with costs of about $106.2 billion. Of these, Saudi Arabia planned to construct 23 high-speed rails with an investment of $25.6 billion, one of which will connect Mecca and Medina.

In countries like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, the status of women has been visibly raised in political areas. Furthermore, people have more democratic rights in elections and more easily criticize their governments in publications.

Syrias unpredictable future

Syrias political situation has remained in turmoil throughout the year. Military conflicts between government forces and opposition militants have upgraded into a civil war. Casualties rose as battles in big cities intensified. And the Syrian Governments situation is getting more difficult.

In spite of all of these issues, the Syrian Government is still a dominant force, and government troops retain an advantageous position on the war field. Without foreign military intervention or weaponry assistance, it will be impossible for opposition militants to overthrow the countrys administration through street-fight-type guerilla tactics, kidnapping, bombings or looting.

Syrias future is unpredictable, but could fall under one of four distinct possibilities.

The first is a normal power shift according to the new Syrian Constitution. The Constitution says each president should have a seven-year term, and each president can have only one extra term. Based on that, Bashar al-Assad will end his term in 2014. Syrias ruling Baath Party supports the multi-party reform. It attended the May 7 parliamentary elections together with other political parties. If the countrys political reform goes well, the presidential election will be held by the end of 2013. It is quite possible that Assad will not join the campaign.

The second is a political solution. For example, if the UN-backed peace plan of reaching consensus between the Syrian Government and the opposition is realized, Assads fate will depend on the result of the peace talks. There may be another possibility that under domestic and foreign pressures, Assad will suggest an earlier presidential election in 2013, in which he will not run. Or, Assad could be forced to resign and shift power to his vice president to realize a peaceful transition.

The third way is to depend on foreign military intervention to overthrow the Assad administration. In this way, Syrian opposition militants will work with Western countries and some GCC members to take down the current government.

The fourth possibility is that the Syrian military takes power after long-lasting political and economic turmoil. Then the country will be on track to a political solution after a period of transition.

Two Sudans eased up

South Sudan declared independence on July 9, 2011. But its disputes with Sudan have not been settled with independence. Border demarcation remains unsettled, and oil income distribution is not clear. Military conflicts burst out in March and April 2012, as the two countries fought for oil resources in the region. Sudan even declared war on South Sudan on April 18 after the latters army occupied an oilfield on the formers side. The war ended quickly when South Sudan pulled out, but military conflicts continued from time to time in border areas.

After hard negotiations following the international communitys mediation, the presidents of the two countries signed a number of agreements on economic and security cooperation in Addis Ababa on September 27. The two sides agreed to share oil profits, end hostility, and permit the free pass, settlement or working of their people on each side.

Regional power reshuffle

Egypt has started to climb up from its downhill path this year. The new administration has adjusted the countrys foreign policy to adopt a principle of independent and balanced diplomacy. In 2012, it took Palestines side, ameliorated the relationship with Iran, kept a distance with Israel and the United States, and tried to reach a balance among Saudi Arabia, Iran and itself. It regained regional power status by heading Islamic countries fourmember committee on solving the Syria issue.

Iran hosted a Non-Aligned Movement summit in September. Representatives of 120 countries, including 30 heads of state and government leaders, participated in the meeting. The meeting broke Washingtons opinion of Iran being “isolated” by the international community. On the Iranian nuclear issue, Iran carried out a toe-to-toe tactic against Washington. It conducted military rehearsals, tested advanced missiles, resisted European and U.S. sanctions, supported Syrian President Assad, and mended its relationship with Egypt. Its regional influence is on the rise.

In the meantime, GCC countries such as Saudi Arabia, once controlled the Arab League on Libya, Yemen and Syria issues and their influence increased. However, they are generally losing influence in the region because of their close relationship with the West, especially after a movie made in the United States insulted the Islamic prophet Mohammed and provoked a strong reaction from Muslim countries.

Turkey did more talking than acting when it comes to supporting Arab nations “revo- lution” and resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Therefore, its popularity has fallen this year. Its cooling relations with Iran and biased stance toward Syria limited its role in regional issues. Turkish Premier Recep Tayyip Erdogans declaration on bringing down the Assad administration was resisted at home and abroad, putting him in a tough position. His only choice was to ease up the tense relationship with Syria.

Israel has become more isolated than before. The international community paid more sympathy to Palestine, calling for a peaceful solution. People in the Arab world showed a high antiIsrael sentiment. For example, the Egyptian Government limited exchanges with Israel under public pressure, choosing instead to support Palestine in establishing an independent state.

Declining U.S. influence

The United States soft power in the region has obviously decreased this year. People in the region object to U.S.-style democracy and insist on Islamic-style democracy because they believe democracy should be original, not a transplant.

Washington propagandizes a clash of civilizations. It advertises the superiority of the Christians while belittling other religions especially Islam from time to time. Its stance has outraged the 1.5 billion Muslims throughout the world and triggered several rounds of anti-U.S. tides in the Middle East this year. Four Americans including the U.S. ambassador to Libya were killed in an attack on the U.S. Consulate in Libyas Benghazi.

Washingtons double standard in the Middle East was strongly opposed. It always indulges Israel while being tough on Palestine. While treating Hamas as a terrorist force and exerting pressure on the Palestine Liberation Organization, it stood against Palestines efforts to improve its position in the UN.

Another reason for Washingtons unpopularity in the region is its interference in the domestic affairs of countries in the region. It overturned the Muammar Gaddafi regime of Libya last year. In 2012, it supported the Syrian opposition to bring Assad down. It even tried to introduce U.S.-style democracy to Middle East countries in transition, like Egypt. Its deeds were abhorrent to people in the region.