New Opportunity or New Trouble?

By Yu Lintao

Although Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas regained great popularity in the Palestinian territories after the UN General Assembly voted overwhelmingly to grant an upgrade of Palestines status from an “entity” to a “non-member state,” the dream of the Palestinians to found a country of their own with independent sovereignty as well as territorial integrity appears to be even more distant.

Some observers said the significance of Palestines status upgrade is more symbolic than substantive. As Israel and the United States were completely against Palestines becoming a UN non-member observer, the status upgrade would bring the Palestinians more practical difficulties and present greater barricades to creating an independent state.

Symbols over substance

On November 29, the 67th UN General Assembly adopted a resolution to grant Palestine the status of a UN observer state. UN member states voted 138 to 9, with 41 abstentions, to support a draft resolution cosponsored by about 70 countries. The move was an implicit recognition of Palestines statehood at the UN. Just the year before, Palestine failed to become a full member of the world body as the United States vowed to use its veto power at the UN Security Council.

Though the UN non-member observer status will enable Palestine to become a full member in UN agencies as well as a mem- ber in the International Court of Justice, which would enable the Palestinians to file complaints against Israel, the status upgrade was of more symbolic significance for the Palestinians, said Chen Shuangqing, a researcher with the Institute of West Asian and African Studies at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations.

“Acceptance of Palestine as a nonmember state would implicitly recognize the Palestinians right to create a country of their own. However, under the current situation in which most parts of the Palestinian territories are under the occupation of Israel, it is not realistic to found a Palestinian state with territorial integrity,” said Chen.

“On the other hand,” Chen said, “Palestine in fact has not realized national unity at this point. It is still under the administration of two different parties with totally different political views.”

Yin Gang, a senior researcher on Middle East studies with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, echoed Chen.

Yin said it is not the right time for Palestine to become a state observer of the UN because it is not yet united and large parts of its territories are still under the control of Israel.

“The bid was not conducive to IsraeliPalestinian peace talks,” Yin said to Beijing Review. “For the Palestinians, the bid was of little substantive significance, on the contrary, it could possibly cause them more trouble as they might face pressure from Israel.”

Soon after, in a punitive measure, Israel declared the suspension of monthly tax revenues and other funds regularly transferred to the Palestinian National Authority (PNA), part of which is used to pay for the electricity bills Palestine owes to Israel.

“This part of tax revenue accounts for about one 10th to one eighth of the PNAs fiscal budget. The suspension will certainly cause financial trouble for the PNA,” Yin said.

Moreover, Chen said it is very possible that the United States would suspend its economic assistance for the Palestinians as a kind of punishment.

Over the years, Washington has provided financial aid to the Palestinians to push the PNA into peace talks with Israel.

“Washington is a major mediator of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. It insists that the two sides should resolve their problems through negotiations, but it is against Palestines seeking to create an independent country by joining the UN. Therefore, Washington would possibly not continue its financial aid to the Palestinians,” Chen told Beijing Review.

Strong response

Observers said as Israel strongly opposes Palestines status upgrading, it may seize the chance to strengthen its control of the Palestinian territories in addition to economic punishment.

They added that the Israeli-Palestinian relationship has in fact regressed since Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu took power for a second tenure in 2009. The prime minister has since implemented tougher policies toward the Palestinians, including constructing new Jewish settlements in the occupied Palestinian territories.

“Especially after turmoil broke out in the Middle East early last year, Israel felt a much sense of insecurity and its policies became much tougher,” said Chen.

Less than 24 hours after Palestine successful statehood bid at the UN, Israels security cabinet led by Netanyahu declared approval of the construction of 3,000 more housing units in East Jerusalem and the West Bank. It also decided to further the planning procedures of another 1,000 units in settlements, including the section connecting Maaleh Adumim, the largest Jewish settlement in the West Bank, and East Jerusalem.

Yin said these planned new settlements, which lie in a pivotal area of the occupied Palestinian territories, will disintegrate the Palestinian land and further jeopardize Palestinian territorial integrity.

“It is an apparent retaliation against Palestines UN bid. Israel will take this op- portunity to continue to creep into the land of a future Palestinian state. And it would bring more difficulties for the Palestinians to create an independent country of their own,” Chen said.

However, the consolation is that Israels settlement expansion plan was strongly opposed by members of the international community, including its closest allies like the United States and Britain. Britain, France and Sweden have summoned Israeli ambassadors for clarifications over the Israeli Governments planned expansion of settlements and are contemplating further punitive measures.

“The ultimate settlement of the IsraeliPalestinian conflict rests on the two sidesability to actively pursue negotiations with a conscientious and pragmatic attitude. Only in this way will positive progress be made at an early date,” said Yin.

In the statement after voting in favor of the draft resolution calling for Palestines UN non-member observer state status, Chinas permanent representative to the UN Li Baodong said China supports the Palestinian membership in the UN and other international organizations and expresses its understanding and support for the request of Palestine to be- come an observer state at the UN.

“Gaining independent statehood is a legitimate right of the Palestinian people; it is the basis and pre-requisite for the realization of the two-state solutions with the two countries standing peacefully side by side,” Li said.

But Li also stressed that China hopes parties concerned will resolve their disputes through political negotiations on the basis of relevant UN resolutions, the “land for peace”principle, Arab peace initiatives and the roadmap for peace in the Middle East, so as to establish an independent state of Palestine.

Yin, however, remains prudent about the resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

“I am not so optimistic. For the Palestinians, the top priority is to restore national unity and achieve national reconciliation. The Palestinians need a stable and united government, which could add weight in their negotiations with Israel,” Yin said.“On the other hand, Israel doesnt want to have peace talks with a divided Palestine when the Palestinians still cannot reach internal consensus.” n