After Mubarak

By LIU YUEQIN

After Mubarak

By LIU YUEQIN

With an interim military government in place, turmoilridden Egypt faces an uphill battle

A political tornado,which gained un expected strength in Egypt,has spread rapidly, with anti-government demonstrations erupting in may Arab countries. The geopolitical situation in the region has caught the world’s attention. Egypt, an influential Arab country in the Middle East, has particularly attracted attention.

Causes

Three reasons for the Egyptian unrest can be identi fi ed: heightened social con fl icts;worries that former President Hosni Mubarak would institute a hereditary system of leadership; and a corrupt Egyptian Government.

What happened in Egypt was not a military coup or an Islamic “holy war.” The protests were not provoked by external forces, either. Instead, people took to the streets mainly because of problems concerning their livelihoods. The government headed by Mubarak had lost the trust of the people.The political atmosphere was not democratic enough, and economic development was slow. People had lived a hard life for a long time due to skyrocketing prices and high unemployment. All these factors sharpened social con fl icts.

The Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt,founded in 1928, is known as the world’s most influential Islamic movement. But there was no sign the organization was behind these protests. In fact, the protests were sparked by young Egyptian people without the support of any organization or political party. Initial protests were staged by a group of laid-off youths on January 25. Later, more and more people joined, causing the situation to spiral out of control.

The protests were targeted squarely at Mubarak, who had served as Egyptian president for nearly 30 years. Protesters demanded he step down immediately. Protests broke out in big cities like Cairo, Alexandria and Suez, causing con fl icts between protesters and riot police.

Massive protests had significant implications for Egypt’s political, economic,diplomatic and security situation, leading to Mubarak’s resignation on February 11.

The Mubarak age ended in a dramatic way. His departure illustrated how sharp Egypt’s social conflicts are. Statistics in 2009 showed the country’s poverty rate was as high as 36 percent. Chronic social problems, mainly caused by poverty, have led to a rich-poor disparity. Plus, the country’s unemployment and inflation rates have remained high. Therefore, it was inevitable that popular discontent would eventually lead to social unrest.

During Mubarak’s long term in office,people’s living conditions deteriorated instead of getting better. Egyptians worried that he might create a hereditary system of leadership by transferring power to his son, Gamal.

If the presidential election cannot be held as scheduled, the interim military government will likely stay in power

At first, Mubarak took measures to adapt to the changed political situation. For instance, he clearly expressed he had no inclination to run for president during the next election. He said he would step down when his term finished in September, and his son Gamal would not be a presidential candidate. He also suggested amending the Constitution to lower presidential candidates’quali fi cation threshold and put a limit to the president’s term.

He even quickly carried out a major government reshuf fl e. On January 29, Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif and his cabinet collectively resigned on Mubarak’s request.Former Aviation Minister Ahmed Shafiq was appointed prime minister and authorized to form a new cabinet. Former intelligence chief Omar Suleiman was named vice president, which was the fi rst time Mubarak had appointed a vice president since he came into power in 1981.

But Mubarak’s efforts were too late.Protesters couldn’t wait until the election in September because they were afraid of possible changes. They insisted Mubarak step down immediately, because once Mubarak was not in of fi ce, there would be no possibility for his son to inherit power.

Serious corruption of government officials, including Mubarak, was also an important reason. Western media reports say Mubarak’s personal wealth has been estimated at $20 billion-70 billion, about 30-50 percent of Egypt’s annual national income.

Responding to protesters’ calls to combat corruption, former Interior Minister Habib al-Adly, former Housing Minister Ahmed Maghrabi, former Tourism Minister Zuheir Garana and steel giant Ahmed Izz were arrested on February 17 and their assets were frozen. The four were charged with several crimes such as money laundering, abuse of power and speculation. Four days later,Mubarak and his families’ assets and bank accounts at home and abroad were frozen,pending further investigation.

By holding senior of fi cials accountable,Egyptian judicial authorities delivered to the people the message that the country acknowledged the urgency of addressing corruption and punishing corrupt of fi cials.

Challenges

The entire Egyptian government system is being adjusted now. The next six months will be extremely important to the country, because in this period the interim military government is expected to create a stable situation for the September presidential election.

The interim government now faces severe challenges, including confirming presidential candidates, holding the presidential election and parliamentary elections on time and completing amending the Constitution. For now, the top item on its agenda is to resume the normal operation of central and local government departments as soon as possible, so as to establish a stable political order.

In addition, the interim government needs to end the state of emergency after the situation becomes stable, restore normalcy to everyday life, and guarantee a peaceful transfer of power to the future elected government as it promised on February 12.

Another urgent task for the interim government is to combat violence and criminality and prevent terrorism. Crimes, like arson, robbery and looting, have increased throughout the country since the protests.Extremists and terrorists have also undertaken violent activities, such as the natural gas pipeline explosion in the Sinai Peninsula in early February.

There are still many uncertainties during this six-month interim. For example, the military might choose to continue its control after it gets a taste of power. This scenario is possible, because no party is now prepared to take over the reigns after the collapse of the Mubarak administration.

It will not be easy for the interim government to implement the presidential election schedule. As time goes by, more and more parties will get involved in the election,which will make it more complicated.Disputes may arise over the composition of the election committee, the election date, election procedures and monitoring.Moreover, the result of the presidential election must be acceptable to all parties, so as to guarantee a subsequent peaceful transfer of power. As of now, no Egyptian party has an absolute political advantage, making the election result unpredictable.

Meanwhile, most of the Egyptian parties seeking of fi ce are trying to establish external connections, only to complicate the country’s political landscape. It is more dif fi cult to create a new government than to overthrow an old one. If the presidential election cannot be held as scheduled, the interim military government will likely stay in power. The role of the military will therefore be crucial to Egypt’s future.

Apart from Egypt, countries including Algeria, Yemen, Bahrain and Libya,have also been the sites of anti-government protests in recent months. Social conditions in these countries are surprisingly similar:government corruption, big gaps between the rich and the poor, and high unemployment and in fl ation rates. Economic problems are generating a domino effect in the Arab world.

The author is a research fellow with the Institute of West Asian and African Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

END OF AN ERA: Egyptians celebrate in Cairo on February 11 after President Hosni Mubarak stepped down