Game Changer

By DING YING

Game Changer

By DING YING

Whether or not Palestinians get a UN seat, Mahmoud Abbas has changed the way the game will be played

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas showed the world Palestinians’ desire to be an independent state. In spite of pressure from Israel and the United States, Abbas has submitted the nation’s bid for UN membership.

This brave behavior risks huge economic losses of U.S. assistance and Palestinian financial revenue transferred by Israel. But Abbas’ bid could make it possible for Palestine to be recognized as a UN observer state. The statehood vote may also shake up a stagnated peace process.

Critical timing

The Israeli-Palestinian peace talks have been at a standstill since last September. Although Washington tried to be a good broker between them, the situation didn’t improve. Frustrated with the standstill and with growing Israeli settlements in the occupied territories, Abbas decided to seek statehood recognition from the UN.He submitted the Palestinian request of being the UN’s 194th member to the UN General Assembly on September 23.

The timing of Abbas’ move could be critical. Analysts pointed out that as Lebanon currently holds the UN Security Council chair and Qatar is the chair state of the UN General Assembly, now is a precious chance for Palestinians. Recently,Abbas paid a visit to Lebanon to get the country’s support on its UN membership bid.

Zhu Weilie, a researcher with the Middle East Studies Institute of the Shanghai International Studies University,said Israel’s decreasing influence was a key reason for Abbas’ decision. Zhu said from the time Ariel Sharon became Israeli Prime Minister in 2001 until Benjamin Netanyahu came into power in 2009, the Israeli Government didn’t make any practical move to push negotiations forward.This greatly damaged Israel’s reputation in the Arab world.

PUSHING FOR RECOGNITION: Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas displays a copy of the Palestinian application for UN membership while delivering a speech at the UN General Assembly on September 23

Plus, Israel’s relationships with Turkey and Egypt, two major powers in the Middle East, have deteriorated. These two used to be Israel’s allies. In May 2010, Israeli commandos raided a Turkish fl otilla that was heading to the Gaza Strip loaded with humanitarian assistance, killing several Turkish citizens on board. After Israel refused to apologize,Turkey expelled the Israeli ambassador. On September 9 this year, Egyptians protesting against the killing of fi ve Egyptian soldiers by Israeli forces in the border area in August attacked the Israeli Embassy in Cairo. The Israeli ambassador to Egypt was forced to return to Israel.

Zhu said the new Egyptian administration is determined to discard the previous pro-U.S. and pro-Israeli strategy and help protect Arab nations’ interests to improve its legitimacy. After many years of fruitless efforts to join the EU, Turkey has shifted its focus to the Middle East, aiming to enhance its in fl uence in the region. Moreover,it was enraged by the Israeli attack on the aid fl otilla.

If the Israeli Government continues with the current tough tactics and refuses to resume its peace talks with Palestinians, it will face a more challenging diplomatic environment. “Without a major policy adjustment,it will be hard for the Netanyahu administration to break the current stalemate,” Zhu said.

Li Guofu, Director of the Center of Middle East Studies at the China Institute of International Studies, said Washington’s recent attitude on the Middle East was also an important reason for Abbas’ fi nal decision. He pointed out Netanyahu’s behavior over the past years showed his limited interest in peace talks.

Washington has maintained signi fi cant in fl uence in Israel. But as U.S. President Barack Obama is preoccupied by the presidential election next year, he is not prepared to pressure the Israelis hard enough on this issue. “Palestinians believed there are no other options. Only by making Palestine an of fi cial UN member can they realize their wish of establishing an independent state,” said Li.

Possible endings

Members of the UN Security Council reacted differently to the Palestinian statehood move. China and Russia declared firm support.China has not changed its stance on supporting Palestine and Arab nations to resume legal rights of their nations, said Hong Lei, spokesman of China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. It will not change this stance, whether or not Washington uses its veto in the Security Council,Hong stressed. Russia also expressed a similar opinion.

Maintaining its inseparable links with Israel, Washington has opposed the statehood bid. In his address to the UN General Assembly on September 21, Obama said he believes the Palestinian people deserve “a state of their own,” but opposes their unilateral move for statehood. Obama said he is convinced that“there is no shortcut to the end of a con fl ict that has endured for decades.”

European nations are split three ways on this issue. The fi rst group is represented by France, which supports Palestine joining the UN. The second group, represented by the UK, opposes the application, believing it may destroy peace talks between Israelis and Palestinians. The third group might abstain when voting, because they don’t want to enrage either side. “The whole of Europe now doesn’t have a united stance,” said Li.

BIRTH OF A NATION?: Residents in the West Bank city of Ramallah rally on September 23 in support of the Palestinian UN membership bid

Although Washington has threatened to veto Palestine’s bid, Palestine insisted on submitting its application to the UN Security Council. It may also apply to the UN General Assembly if it fails in the Security Council.

Palestine risks losing a huge amount of U.S. assistance, which is worth about $500 million annually. Israel also might withhold the tariffs it collects for Palestine, worth about $1 billion every year. These two sources account for more than 60 percent of Palestine’s total financial budget. To cope with possible economic sanctions, Palestine has actively lobbied for more assistance from Arab countries. For example, Kuwait and Algeria respectively donated $50 million and$26 million to Palestine.

The Palestinian leadership said they would study proposals presented by France to accept the position of an observer state in the UN and agree on a one-year time schedule to reach a permanent peace agreement with Israel. Palestinians also said the resumption of any direct peace talks with Israel must be based on an Israeli commitment to the two-state solution according to the 1967 borders and halting settlement construction.

Li said Palestine has prepared for two results. If the United States and other UN Security Council members accept its bid, it will realize its dream of becoming an independent state; if they don’t accept it, it will at least obtain a more preferential position in future negotiations with Israel. If Palestine submits its application to the General Assembly, it might gain recognition as a UN observer.

China’s Special Envoy to the Middle East Wu Sike said if Palestine becomes a UN observer, it will win more international support at least morally. As a UN observer state, it will be able to join UN agencies such as the International Criminal Court, paving the way for the eventual establishment of an independent Palestinian state.

Zhang Guoqing, a researcher with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,warned that if Palestinians’ demands were completely rejected, Israel would pay a price:It might face the most dangerous security problems ever. Likewise, the United States would also suffer for its tough stance.

Zhang said Israel’s arrogance and a U.S.“betrayal” would disappoint Palestinians,fueling anti-Israeli and anti-American sentiments. Conflicts might frequently burst out between Israelis and Palestinians. “This is not good news for Israel, especially given its pressing economic problems at home.”

Moreover, other anti-Israeli forces, like Egypt, would have more excuses. The new Egyptian leadership has decided to play the anti-Israeli card, and Egyptians are showing more anger at Israel, said Zhang.

Washington has no extra energy to cover Israel as usual, Zhang said.Domestically, it has huge economic and social problems. Internationally, it is still mired in Iraq and Afghanistan. “The Middle East may enter a new period of turbulence if Palestine’s bid for UN membership gets vetoed,” Zhang said.

“Palestinians believed there are no other options. Only by making Palestine an official UN member can they realize their wish of establishing an independent state.”

—Li Guofu, Director of the Center of Middle East Studies at the China Institute of International Studies