Syria’s Future

By LIU YUEQIN

Syria’s Future

By LIU YUEQIN

With reform pledges and public support, the Bashar al-Assad administration is likely to survive protests

The Syrian domino has finally fallen,joining many other Arab and Middle East nations embroiled in unrest. Demonstrations burst out in southern Syria in mid-March, and rapidly spread to other areas. On April 25, Syrian troops entered the southern city of Daraa. This action was considered a turning point. Four days later,U.S. President Barack Obama launched new sanctions against Syria, decrying human rights violations. The EU also imposed sanctions on May 9.

A political crisis

Two factors caused Syria’s political crisis: regional instability and domestic confl icts.

Regional turmoil started in Tunisia and soon spread to Egypt, Bahrain, Libya and Yemen. Like in those countries, demonstrations in Syria were led by opposition groups and triggered by concerns over people’s livelihoods.

Syria has a rigid political system. The current Syrian president and his father have administered the country for the last 41 years:Bashar al-Assad has run the country for 11 years, and his father, Hafez al-Assad, ruled for 30 years. State power has been monopolized by the al-Assad family and the Alawis,a group of Shiite Muslims. This political system leaves few opportunities for social elites to participate in state administration.Therefore, they are desperate to push for political reforms.

Also, the Syrian Government declared a state of emergency in 1963, which allowed arrests of suspected people without trial and restricted public gatherings, causing accumulated public resentment.

Moreover, slow economic development,in fl ation and high unemployment continue to plague Syria, where 32 percent of the population lives below the UN poverty line, earning$2 a day or less. Low incomes, low social welfare benefits and a low happiness index have led to serious social problems.

To comfort its people, the Syrian Government had to answer demonstrators’calls for reforms. Bashar al-Assad dismissed the cabinet on March 29, agreed to end the state of emergency on April 19, dissolved the Supreme State Security Court—a special court that existed outside the ordinary criminal justice system—and issued 15 other measures to appease the public while promising more.

However, it was too little, too late. The opposition insisted that demonstrations should not end until the government releases political prisoners, allows for freedom ofspeech and implements a multi-party system.

COMMON TOUCH: Syrian President Bashar al-Assad waves to supporters after addressing parliament in Damascus on March 30

The political and social turmoil in Syria is deeply rooted in internal problems, and political and social reforms are essential to end the crisis.

U.S. worries

The Syrian military suppressed protesters at the government’s bidding, much like in Libya. Although Western countries including the United States criticized the Syrian Government’s excessive use of military force, they did not plan military intervention like the one against Libya.

U.S. President Barack Obama seems not to be interested in military intervention in Syria. Also, Obama is worried that with Bashar al-Assad out of the picture,Islamic extremists might come into power in Syria as they did during the 1979 Iranian Revolution, which vexed the United States,believing it could be the unintended consequence.

Syria is the only Arab country that maintains a close relationship with Iran.It exerts great pressure on the West along with Iran, Lebanon’s Hezbollah and the Palestinian Islamic party Hamas.Considering the geopolitical environment,a military attack against Syria would elicit assistance from Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas,exacerbating an already chaotic situation.Given these considerations, the United States and other Western countries have to turn a blind eye to the Syrian military’s suppression of demonstrators. Instead of striking a match, they must wait patiently as the situation unfolds.

Washington’s new sanctions are unlikely to prevent the Syrian Government from suppressing demonstrations. U.S. sanctions against Syria have been in place since 2004,with limited success in creating a rift between Syria and its Middle East allies. Now able to resist U.S. sanctions, Syrian officials do not fear new ones. Besides, the United States barely has any economic influence over Syria, so its sanctions do not pose a credible threat.

The attitude of the United States is crucial to the future situation of Syria. For President Obama, now is not a good time to attack Syria. On one hand, he is not sure about the Syrian president’s attitude toward reforms.On the other hand, the United States has limited economic interests in Syria. There is little possibility for the United States or other Western countries to wage a war in Syria.

Neighbors’ attitudes

Currently, Syria’s allies, neighbors and enemies all maintain a cautious attitude toward the situation.

PROPERTY IN RUINS: A man passes a burnt building on March 27 in north Syria’s port city of Latakia, where armed gangs took positions on rooftops across the city

Syria occupies an important geopolitical position in the region. Any ripple of change in Syria might trigger a wave of change in the rest of the region. Unlike Libya, Syria is not alone on the world stage—it is an ally of Russia. When the United States and European countries tried to pass a statement to condemn Syria through a UN Security Council discussion, their motion was opposed by Russia.

Syria’s neighbors don’t want to see a messy situation in Syria, because it would create unpredictable results in the region.Syria also has a Kurdish issue. Once Syria’s political stability deteriorates, Syrian Kurds might establish an autonomous Kurdish region like the one in northern Iraq, which may spark a chain reaction in Kurdish communities in Turkey and Iran, much to the chagrin of the Turkish Government. Turkey hopes the Bashar al-Assad regime will remain in power.Turkey, which borders Syria, also worries that it might be faced with a surge of Syrian refugees. Other Arab countries in the Gulf region do not wish to see a power shift in Syria for similar reasons.

Syria occupies an important geopolitical position in the region.Any ripple of change in Syria might trigger a wave of change in the rest of the region

Although Israel is an enemy of Syria,the two nations have been at peace with each other for a long time. Israel prefers the stability ensured by the continued presence of Bashar al-Assad to the looming threat of Islamic extremists seizing power in yet another neighboring country.

Civil war unlikely

The situation in Syria will depend on both Bashar al-Assad’s ability to cope with current challenges and the strength of the Syrian opposition.

Unlike Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, Bashar al-Assad is capable of dealing with the current challenges. He enjoys the support of most Syrian people and the Syrian Government still keeps the military under control. The al-Assad family, the military,the ruling Ba’ath Party and the Alawis still have strong in fl uence in the country. Bashar al-Assad has called on civilians to report“terrorists” participating in violent protests around them. These “terrorists” will fi nd no safe refuge in the country.

While suppressing demonstrators,the Syrian Government has promised to devise plans for comprehensive reforms.In the meantime, it has begun to conduct negotiations with the opposition.Therefore, Bashar al-Assad is able to meet challenges from the opposition at least for a while, especially with support from the military.

Since the Syrian Government has long cracked down on Islamic radicals, there are almost no political parities or organizations in Syria formidable enough to oust the government. So chances for a civil war in the country are quite slim.

The author is a research fellow with the Institute of West Asian and African Studies of the Chinese

Academy of Social Sciences